Lewis Hamilton, a renowned figure in Formula 1, holds a remarkable record with 105 Grand Prix victories. Despite this achievement, he has yet to secure a win as a Ferrari driver. His last victory came during the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix, marking the end of his time with Mercedes.
In 2025, Hamilton faced an unusually dry spell, unable to finish in the top three for the first time in his career. He broke this streak by finishing third at the 2026 Chinese Grand Prix. With his sights set on achieving his first win for Ferrari, analysis has revealed the tracks where he has the best chance for victory.
Hamilton’s Winning Percentages
The analysis focused on Hamilton’s win percentages at upcoming tracks. Notably, he has performed exceptionally at Silverstone, achieving a 45% win rate. Hamilton boasts nine victories at the British Grand Prix, the highest for any driver at a single venue.
Top Tracks for Hamilton
- Silverstone: 45% win rate (9 wins)
- Canada (Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve): 44% win rate (7 wins)
- Hungary (Hungaroring): 42% win rate (8 wins)
Conversely, Hamilton has struggled at tracks like Miami, the Netherlands, and Las Vegas, having never won at these locations. He has registered a podium finish at Zandvoort and Las Vegas but has yet to break into the top three in Miami, finishing sixth or lower in four attempts.
Ferrari’s Competitive Edge
To assess Ferrari’s chances against Mercedes at upcoming races, evaluations of estimated lap times were made. The circuit characterized by the least pace deficit for Ferrari is Monaco, at 0.06%. Other notable tracks are:
- Hungary: 0.07% deficit
- Barcelona-Catalunya: 0.12% deficit
- Singapore: 0.12% deficit
Spa-Francorchamps shows the largest deficit at 0.54%, with Monza following closely at 0.51%. These conclusions highlight power unit performance as crucial for Ferrari’s competitiveness.
Hamilton’s Best Opportunities to Win in 2026
A scoring system was developed to evaluate Hamilton’s best opportunities for victory at each track remaining in the season. Both his historical success and Ferrari’s calculated deficits contributed to the scoring.
- Hungaroring: 9.6 – highest chance of victory
- Barcelona-Catalunya: 8.2
- Monaco and Singapore: 8.1
- Austin: 7.7
- Madrid: 7.4
- Mexico City: 7.1
Conversely, tracks that may present challenges include Spa-Francorchamps (1.8), Monza (2.2), and Las Vegas (3.3). The upcoming Miami Grand Prix is rated at 3.9, indicating a tough challenge for both Hamilton and Ferrari.
The next few races, particularly at Monaco and Barcelona, could be pivotal for Hamilton’s road to victory with Ferrari. These tracks may soon witness a return to winning form for the team.
