Obamacare, officially known as the Affordable Care Act (ACA), is facing significant premium increases for 2026. New data reveals that these increases challenge millions of Americans enrolled in health insurance plans through the ACA. The enhanced premium tax credits that have been a key part of the legislation’s support are currently at the center of a political debate, especially due to the ongoing federal government shutdown.
Obamacare Premiums Expected to Rise
Approximately 24 million Americans are enrolled in Obamacare plans, with open enrollment for 2026 set to begin on November 1. As insurers prepare to notify members of impending premium increases, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) anticipates an average rise of 26% in premiums through ACA exchanges next year.
State-Specific Premium Increases
- States operating their own ACA exchanges will see an average increase of 17% in silver tier premiums.
- By contrast, states utilizing Healthcare.gov will experience a higher average increase of 30%.
These changes reflect growing costs in the healthcare system, influenced by factors such as increased hospital expenses and the rising popularity of costly medications like GLP-1 drugs. Notably, the expected expiration of enhanced tax credits also plays a significant role in driving up premium costs.
The Impact of Enhanced Tax Credits
A large majority of enrollees—approximately 22 million—currently receive tax credits to help manage their premium costs. If Congress fails to extend the enhanced tax credits, subsidized enrollees could see their monthly payments more than double, with projected increases of around 114% on average.
Political Implications and Ongoing Debates
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are advocating for the extension of these tax credits. The fate of the enhanced credit program is closely tied to the ongoing government shutdown, which began on October 1.
According to KFF, insurers are expected to charge roughly 4 percentage points more in premiums due to anticipated coverage drop from healthier individuals if enhanced tax credits are allowed to expire.
The future of Obamacare remains uncertain, with potential legislative moves likely to shape the landscape of health insurance coverage in the coming years. As discussions continue, millions of Americans await clear guidance on their health insurance options and costs for 2026.
