The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recently published its monthly global weather outlook, indicating a significant change in the equatorial Pacific. Rising sea surface temperatures suggest a heightened likelihood of El Niño conditions emerging between May and July 2026.
El Niño Event Formation Likelihood
Forecasts indicate that, over the next quarter, the majority of the planet will experience above-normal terrestrial surface temperatures. The WMO warns of potential shifts in precipitation patterns in several regions. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, the WMO’s climate prediction chief, stated that models show a strong consensus towards the establishment of an El Niño episode, gaining strength in the following months.
Understanding El Niño and La Niña
El Niño and La Niña represent opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a crucial climate pattern affecting weather globally. These phenomena can lead to significant alterations in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Accurate ENSO forecasts are vital for governments, humanitarian organizations, water resource managers, and farmers to effectively anticipate and respond to climate risks.
Characteristics and Impacts of El Niño
El Niño is characterized by increased ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. Such events typically occur every two to seven years and last 9 to 12 months. The WMO refrains from using the term “super El Niño” as it is not part of standardized operational classifications.
- El Niño typically leads to:
- Increased precipitation in parts of southern South America, southern USA, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.
- Drier conditions in Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.
The 2024 year recorded as the hottest on record was influenced by the 2023/2024 El Niño episode, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change driven by greenhouse gases. While current climate change does not seem to increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events, it can amplify their associated impacts, leading to more severe extreme weather occurrences, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
Upcoming Climate Forecasts and Preparedness
The WMO’s seasonal climate outlook for May, June, and July predicts above-normal land surface temperatures, particularly in North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and North Africa. The organization emphasizes the importance of seasonal forecasts for preparing sectors vulnerable to climate impacts, including agriculture and water management.
The forthcoming El Niño/La Niña bulletin, scheduled for release in late May, will provide further guidance for actions expected from June through August. This bulletin will rely on contributions from the WMO’s Global Seasonal Prediction Centers and will incorporate expert consensus facilitated by the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).
Regional Forums will issue seasonal predictions tailored to specific areas. For instance, the South Asian Climate Forum will release its monsoon forecast on April 28. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will also keep the public informed with timely updates.
Technical Context
As the La Niña episode concluded in early April, current ENSO conditions have been neutral. Observations reveal near-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific and an increase in subsurface water heat content. Most forecasting models anticipate that neutral ENSO conditions will persist through spring in the Northern Hemisphere, transitioning to typical El Niño conditions during summer or fall.
Some models predict that sea surface temperatures may exceed thresholds indicative of El Niño by May to July 2026, potentially remaining elevated until year’s end. This data comes from various meteorological centers, supporting the anticipated development of an El Niño episode.
