Dwayne Johnson faced a significant setback at the box office this past weekend with the release of his latest film, *The Smashing Machine*. This R-rated drama, inspired by UFC champion Mark Kerr, earned just $5.9 million in its opening weekend, marking Johnson’s lowest debut to date.
The Shift in Expectations for *The Smashing Machine*
Originally announced during the UFC 244 weigh-ins in November 2019, *The Smashing Machine* was expected to perform well. Initial projections estimated an opening between $14 million and $20 million. However, the film’s release resulted in disappointing results, despite a successful debut at the Venice Film Festival, where it received a 15.5-minute standing ovation and a Silver Lion award.
Mixed Reception and Key Issues
- The film holds a 73% score on Rotten Tomatoes.
- It achieved a B- CinemaScore, reflecting divided opinions among viewers and critics.
- Concerns about its commercial appeal stemmed from an unconventional narrative focusing on an athlete’s struggle with addiction rather than the typical sports underdog angle.
Despite its estimated production cost of $50 million, *The Smashing Machine* benefits from foreign sales negotiations, bringing in around $35 million. Johnson took a reduced salary of $4 million and gave a portion of it to co-stars, which reflects his commitment to the project.
Marketing Challenges and Competition
*The Smashing Machine* encountered stiff competition from *Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party for a Showgirl*, which dominated the box office with a $34 million opening. Marketing strategies for Johnson’s film were scrutinized, particularly as A24 struggled to engage audiences effectively, especially those over 35. While 64% of the audience were aged 18-34, the broader viewership was largely missed.
Additionally, promotional efforts included a notable grassroots campaign led by director Benny Safdie, who distributed flyers in New York City. However, with Warner Bros. significantly outspending A24 on marketing, *The Smashing Machine* could not compete in a crowded market.
Future Outlook
Industry insiders predict that *The Smashing Machine* will not incur heavy losses, with estimates suggesting losses could range from $10 million to $15 million. A24 appears committed to supporting the film during the awards season, but its commercial prospects remain uncertain.
Looking ahead, Dwayne Johnson is expected to rebound with upcoming projects, including Disney’s *Moana* and Sony’s *Jumanji 3*, set for release in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
