Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: UFC 326 Prediction and Pick

UFC 326 is set to showcase an intriguing matchup between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay in the Light Heavyweight division. This bout is part of the Early Prelims, which will commence at 5:30 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: Fight Overview
- Event: UFC 326 Early Prelims
- Date: September 2025
- Location: Paramount+
Fighter Profiles
Rafael Tobias enters this fight with an impressive record of 14 wins and just 1 loss. Notably, 11 of his victories have come by way of submission or knockout. Recently, he secured a UFC contract by defeating Jair de Oliveira via submission on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Diyar Nurgozhay, age 28, holds a record of 10 wins and 2 losses. However, he has yet to achieve a victory in the UFC, holding an unfortunate record of 0-2 in the organization.
Matchup Analysis
Both fighters stand at 6 feet 2 inches tall with an identical reach of 74 inches. While Nurgozhay has more experience in the UFC, Tobias brings a more extensive overall fight record into the octagon.
Tobias trains at Chute Boxe Monstro, a branch of the renowned Chute Boxe gym, known for cultivating elite fighters like Charles Oliveira. His training background contributes to his explosive fighting style and aggressiveness, giving him an edge in this matchup.
Betting Odds
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Rafael Tobias is favored at -180, while Nurgozhay is an underdog at +150. The over/under for the fight is set at 1.5 rounds, with the under listed at -120 and the over at -110.
Best Bet Recommendation
Given Tobias’s recent performances, where he has finished his last three opponents, a bet on him to win by knockout or submission at -115 could be a prudent choice. His dynamic fighting style and skills suggest a strong possibility of securing a finish in this contest.




