Bitcoin has concluded the third quarter of 2025 with an impressive performance, closing at approximately $114,000—a 5% increase in September. This unexpected rise has led to optimistic sentiments among investors regarding potential further price increases as the year progresses.
Historical Trends Favor Bitcoin’s Price Surge
Bitcoin’s history suggests that a strong September often leads to significant gains in the fourth quarter. Data spanning previous years, such as 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, shows that positive September performance has been followed by an average rally of more than 50% in the subsequent quarter.
Monthly Gains Statistics
- October typically averages a gain of 21.8%.
- November historically adds about 10.8%.
If these trends persist, Bitcoin could potentially surpass the $150,000 mark before the end of 2025. This speculation is strengthened by recent market dynamics, including the Bitcoin halving event earlier this year, which significantly reduced the asset’s supply.
Market Conditions and Potential Breakout
Although Bitcoin has exhibited sideways trading behavior recently, several liquidity indicators suggest a possible breakout is on the horizon. Notable factors include global M2 growth, trends in stablecoin supply, and a notable rally in gold prices, which Bitcoin often tracks with a slight delay.
U.S. Government Shutdown Impact
In a surprising twist, Bitcoin soared past $118,000 as the U.S. government experienced a shutdown after Congress failed to approve a funding bill. This led investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, driving gold prices above $3,900 per ounce.
The government shutdown has immediate repercussions for federal employees, Social Security recipients, and travelers, while also disrupting financial markets due to delayed economic data releases.
Institutional Interest and Bullish Sentiment
Institutional activity is fueling a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Recently, BlackRock transferred over $130 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase, signaling potential inflows into their investment products. Historic data shows that Bitcoin has averaged a nearly 58% gain in the fourth quarter since 2015, outpacing other periods.
As 2025 unfolds, the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price will largely depend on investor sentiment and their appetite for risk. If historical patterns hold, the final quarter may usher in significant price advancements for the leading cryptocurrency.
