The heightened U.S. military presence in the Caribbean since August 2025 has raised concerns regarding the potential for conflict with Venezuela. This surge includes the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, deployment of F-35 jets to Puerto Rico, and a significant increase in personnel—totaling approximately 15,000 U.S. troops. The declaration of a naval blockade against Venezuelan tankers, underpinned by recent military actions, suggests a strategic shift toward a confrontation with Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
Venezuela’s Military Landscape
Under the leadership of Hugo Chávez from 1999 to 2013, Venezuela aimed to project military power in Latin America. Despite this historical context, the 2025 Venezuelan military stands as an aging and under-resourced force. Current estimates indicate around 123,000 active military personnel, divided as follows:
- Army: 63,000
- Navy: 25,500
- Air Force: 11,500
- National Guard: 23,000
In addition, there are approximately 200,000 to 300,000 members of the Bolivarian militia, established to ensure territorial defense. The dilapidated state of equipment and low morale further complicate Venezuela’s military readiness.
Impact of Economic Collapse
The Venezuelan military’s capacity has dramatically declined due to economic issues, including severe hyperinflation and mass emigration. Notable military assets, such as Su-30MK2 fighters, T-72B1 tanks, and air-defense systems, face critical maintenance challenges. The navy possesses limited operational capabilities, illustrated by only having one functional frigate.
Response Strategies to U.S. Military Actions
Should U.S. forces initiate airstrikes, Venezuela’s primary defense strategy would involve its air-defense systems, despite their subpar readiness. The initial phase of conflict would see an emphasis on dispersing forces and adopting guerrilla warfare tactics to prolong engagement and increase costs for the U.S.
Asymmetric Warfare and Urban Resistance
The Venezuelan government is expected to leverage its extensive networks of militias and paramilitary groups. Although these groups may lack conventional combat effectiveness, they can effectively carry out urban ambushes and sabotage U.S. supply lines.
Counteracting Covert Operations
To counter U.S. covert operations, Venezuela relies heavily on its counter-intelligence apparatus, which includes several military and intelligence agencies. Its strategy emphasizes early detection and public exposure of alleged U.S. activities to deter interference.
Potential Consequences of U.S. Intervention
A U.S. ground invasion, though unlikely, poses significant challenges. The Venezuelan military’s lack of air and sea control would inevitably lead to quick defeats in direct confrontation. However, the regime’s strategy would pivot toward guerrilla tactics, aiming to transform urban areas into battlegrounds and prolong the conflict.
Long-term Implications
If a U.S. intervention occurs, the political ramifications could be severe. The Venezuelan government’s rich surveillance and internal control systems, coupled with an extensive militia network, could turn any such conflict into a protracted struggle. Even if U.S. forces achieve initial territorial control, managing a hostile environment may prove to be a complex undertaking.
In conclusion, while Venezuela’s conventional military capabilities are significantly weakened, its adopted strategies suggest that any foreign intervention could entail substantial costs and long-term political complexities.
