A tropical wave dubbed Invest 95L is moving west-northwest at approximately 15-20 mph in the central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) anticipates that 95L will continue to develop throughout this week, potentially forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Thursday. At that time, the system is expected to be close to the northeastern Leeward Islands.
Current Status of Invest 95L
As of Monday, satellite imagery indicated that Invest 95L is well-structured, displaying significant spin and increasing thunderstorm activity. The conditions surrounding the system are conducive to development, with:
- Moderate wind shear measured at 10-15 knots
- Warm ocean temperatures around 29°C (84°F)
- Mid-level relative humidity at 70%
These favorable elements are expected to persist throughout the week, bolstering the model support for 95L’s development.
Forecast and Probabilities
The leading forecast models, including the European, UKMET, GFS, and Canadian models, suggest that 95L is likely to move northeast of the Leeward Islands, followed by a curve out to sea. There is also a possibility that 95L could pass directly through the islands. Even in that case, the system is likely to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the area.
Intensity predictions for 95L this week greatly vary, ranging from a tropical depression to a potential major hurricane. A clearer forecast will become available once the system consolidates further.
Impacts on Land and Development Odds
After traversing the Leeward Islands, Bermuda may be the next area to monitor for potential impacts from 95L. According to the NHC’s 8 a.m. EDT Tropical Weather Outlook on Monday, the probability of 95L developing within two days stands at 50%, while the odds increase to 70% over the next week. The next name on the Atlantic storm list is Jerry.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Overview
The ongoing 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has seen nine named storms, including four hurricanes (with notable category ratings: Category 5 Erin, Category 4 Gabrielle, Category 5 Humberto, and Category 2 Imelda). In comparison to historical norms, the season is currently below the averages for named storms and hurricanes:
- Average named storms by this date: 11.6
- Average hurricanes: 5.5
- Average major hurricanes: 2.5
Despite this, the elevated number of major hurricanes has pushed the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index to 91% of the 1991-2020 average. Typically, around 20% of hurricane season activity occurs post-October 5.
