A recent analysis of the mood among Tory MPs regarding Kemi Badenoch’s political future reveals a split opinion within the party. Approximately one-third of MPs participated in a survey addressing the challenges Badenoch faces as the clock ticks down to critical political events.
Two Camps Among Tory MPs
Responses from Tory MPs can be categorized into two main groups. The first camp believes that the next election is distant. They advocate for giving Badenoch the opportunity to mend the party’s image, which they feel has been tarnished by factors beyond her control.
- Supporters are optimistic, describing the mood as “chipper” and noting that Labour is facing its own difficulties.
- They also argue that the populist agenda of Reform UK is losing momentum as reality sets in.
- One MP remarked on the prevailing morale, saying there is a “gallows humour” about the situation, hinting at an underlying camaraderie.
Impactful Performance at PMQs
Several MPs credited Badenoch’s strong performance at Prime Minister’s Questions (PMQs) last month as a pivotal moment.
- She effectively challenged Keir Starmer regarding his connection to former US ambassador Peter Mandelson and convicted paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
- Former cabinet ministers believe this performance has extended her tenure by at least six months.
Concerns About Leadership Direction
The second camp of MPs expresses urgency about Badenoch’s leadership and the party’s long-term future. This group includes those elected in the last cycle who feel disconnected from her office’s direction.
- They lament a lack of robust communication and a failure to acknowledge their concerns.
- One MP highlighted the party’s timidity, expressing frustration over insufficient responses to Reform UK’s proposals.
Preparing for Critical Dates
Badenoch has recognized the need for change. In recent weeks, she has started inviting small groups of MPs for lunch to foster communication.
- Despite her previous disdain for sandwiches, arrangements for meetings have featured platters of shop-bought fare.
- An impending date, November 2, marks her one-year anniversary in office, bringing potential for a confidence vote.
Many believe this deadline is galvanizing her leadership team. “She must have a powerful conference to avoid a confidence vote,” said one MP, acknowledging a sense of urgency highlighted by recent polls.
Upcoming Challenges
Next year’s elections for the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, and various English councils are viewed as crucial for the party’s trajectory.
Many MPs believe these elections could be a defining moment for Badenoch’s political career. The pressure is mounting as they prepare for these significant contests.
