Punxsutawney Phil, the renowned groundhog weather prognosticator, has officially predicted six more weeks of winter. His forecast was made following his shadow sighting on Groundhog Day, February 2.
Punxsutawney Phil’s Winter Prediction
This annual tradition takes place in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Phil emerged from his burrow on Monday morning amid cold temperatures. According to folklore, if Phil sees his shadow, it indicates six additional weeks of winter; if he does not, an early spring is anticipated.
Winter Timeline
Astronomically, winter concludes on the spring equinox, set for March 20 at 10:46 a.m. ET. However, Phil’s forecasting track record raises questions. Recent analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals that his accuracy has only been about 35% over the last 20 years.
- Phil’s predictions are often inaccurate, with past failures including his call for six more weeks of winter last year.
- February 2025 saw temperatures nearing normal levels, despite cold spells, while March was particularly warm.
Expert Weather Forecasts
When Phil’s forecasts miss the mark, meteorologists at the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provide reliable data. Their forecasts span from weekly updates to annual projections.
- February’s predictions show colder conditions for the Eastern US.
- In contrast, the West and Southern Plains may experience an early spring with warmer temperatures.
- The remainder of the nation faces uncertainty, with equal probabilities for above, below, or near-normal temperatures.
Weather Conditions Across the US
This winter has contrasted sharply across the country. Eastern regions have faced severe cold, with several areas reporting among their coldest winters on record. Tragically, this extreme weather has also resulted in dangerous conditions and a significant winter storm impacting the South.
Meanwhile, locations from the Rockies to the West Coast, including cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas, have been enjoying unseasonably warm winter temperatures. This pattern reflects a broader trend — winter has become the fastest-warming season in much of the US, attributed to global temperature increases linked to fossil fuel pollution.
While Phil’s prediction suggests a continuation of winter, the realities of climate change cast doubt on this forecast.
