Florida’s housing market is showing signs of stability as it approaches 2026. Early indicators suggest that easing mortgage rates are helping to bolster sales, despite ongoing challenges related to affordability and local dynamics. Economists, including Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor and National Association of Realtors Deputy Chief Economist Dr. Jessica Lautz, emphasize the impact of these changes on different types of buyers.
Florida Housing Market Trends
Mortgage rates, which have started to decline since mid-2025, are a critical factor in the housing market recovery. Average rates fell from approximately 6.8% to around 6.2%, igniting demand that had been pent up since rates began rising in 2022. This shift has resulted in several positive changes in the market:
- Consistent increase in monthly sales
- Stabilization of time on market
- Slowing growth of inventory as listings are absorbed
Broad-Based Improvement
The improvements are not limited to seasonal markets, according to O’Connor. Instead, the positive trends are evident across various regions of Florida, suggesting a more stable outlook as the market heads into the warmer months. “We don’t have any reason to be pessimistic about the housing market’s performance in 2026,” O’Connor stated. He anticipates continued sales growth as the spring buying season approaches.
Challenges for First-Time Buyers
Despite the general market upturn, affordability issues persist, particularly for first-time homebuyers. National trends indicate that these buyers made up only 21% of home purchases, significantly lower than historical averages. Meanwhile, homeowners with substantial equity have more flexibility to navigate the market. Lautz highlighted the growing divide between first-time buyers struggling with affordability and equity-rich homeowners who can capitalize on favorable conditions.
Projected Scenarios for 2026
Looking ahead, O’Connor advises realtors to prepare for two potential scenarios in 2026 based on mortgage rate movements:
- If rates stabilize, current conditions may persist into 2026.
- If rates decline further, sales momentum could increase and may lead to modest price growth.
O’Connor predicts that a cautious forecast would see the typical 30-year fixed rate around 6% for most of 2026, potentially prompting further boosts in sales and a slight uptick in home prices.
In-Depth Insights at Florida Real Estate Trends
These market trends, encompassing various factors such as rates, affordability, and migration, will be explored in more detail during the upcoming Florida Real Estate Trends presentation at the 2026 Florida Realtors Mid-Winter Business Meetings.
