Recent developments indicate a significant shift in Canada’s foreign policy, particularly concerning its relationship with China. With escalating tensions from the U.S. trade war under President Donald Trump, Canada is exploring stronger ties with China, a nation it has historically viewed with suspicion.
Background: A Fractured Relationship
The relationship between Canada and China deteriorated sharply in 2018. This was triggered by the arrest of Chinese executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver on charges of fraud, which led to China’s detainment of two Canadians, Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, on espionage allegations. These events created an atmosphere of mistrust that lingered for years.
Recent Diplomatic Engagements
In early October, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand visited Beijing, marking a pivotal moment. This was followed by a notable meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in South Korea, the first of its kind in eight years. The discussions paved the way for improved economic collaboration.
Key Developments
- Anand’s visit to Beijing initiated renewed diplomatic dialogue.
- Carney and Xi’s meeting was characterized as a “turning point” in relations.
- Canada was reinstated on China’s approved travel list, indicating potential tourism growth.
Economic Motivations
Both Canada and China have compelling economic reasons to mend their ties. In 2022, Canada introduced a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles to safeguard its market from perceived unfair competition. In retaliation, China imposed its own tariffs on Canadian agricultural products, including canola oil and meal, which severely impacted Canadian farmers.
Public Sentiment and Political Climate
Public opinion in Canada is increasingly wary of the United States, with 46% of Canadians viewing it as a threat compared to 34% for China. Premier Doug Ford has openly advocated for improved relations with China, suggesting a strategic pivot amidst ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.
The Path Forward
The evolving relationship between Canada and China presents both opportunities and risks. Experts suggest that Canada might act as a “middle ground” between the U.S. and China. However, some warn that closer ties could alienate Washington and lead to further complexities in North American geopolitics.
Strategic Considerations
Kovrig, who now serves as a senior adviser with the Crisis Group, cautions that while engagement with China may seem beneficial, it could also enable Beijing to exploit the situation for its own interests. Additionally, any cooperation may hinge on Canada adopting a less critical stance on China’s human rights issues and other core interests.
As Canada navigates its foreign policy landscape, it must weigh the consequences of aligning with China against the backdrop of U.S.-China relations. The outcome of this strategic reassessment may redefine Canada’s role in international trade and diplomacy.
