As the 2025 NFL season enters its second half, the competition for playoff spots intensifies. ESPN’s Seth Walder utilized analytics to evaluate all 32 teams, dividing them into nine distinct tiers based on their playoff aspirations. This analysis considers various factors such as team performance, injury statuses, and future schedules, providing a comprehensive view of each team’s chances as the season progresses.
Ranking NFL Playoff Teams: Contenders vs. Pretenders in Nine Tiers
Tier 1: True Super Bowl Contenders
- Philadelphia Eagles:
- Playoff chances: 96.2%
- Goal: Secure the NFC’s top seed
- Los Angeles Rams:
- Playoff chances: 93.3%
- Goal: Earn home-field advantage
- Buffalo Bills:
- Playoff chances: 91%
- Goal: Claim the AFC’s No. 1 seeding
- Seattle Seahawks:
- Playoff chances: 89.8%
- Goal: Improve run game
Tier 2: Super Bowl Contenders … If They Make the Playoffs
- Kansas City Chiefs:
- Playoff chances: 75.3%
- Goal: Enhance the pass rush
- Detroit Lions:
- Playoff chances: 78.2%
- Goal: Forge a strong offensive identity
- Green Bay Packers:
- Playoff chances: 80.8%
- Goal: Find a playmaker for QB Jordan Love
Tier 3: (Almost) Playoff Locks
- Indianapolis Colts:
- Playoff chances: 96%
- Goal: Ensure a healthy defense
- New England Patriots:
- Playoff chances: 94.4%
- Goal: Protect QB Drake Maye better
Tier 4: Almost Certain to Make the Playoffs
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
- Playoff chances: 89.7%
- Goal: Recover from injuries
Lower Tiers: Potential Playoff Hopefuls
- Chicago Bears (Tier 6): Playoff chances of 44.1%; focus on consistent performance.
- Jacksonville Jaguars (Tier 7): Playoff chances of 14.5%; aim to reduce dropped passes.
- Carolina Panthers (Tier 8): Playoff chances of 8.6%; work on improving defense.
Teams on the Brink
Several teams currently sit in the bottom tier, with minimal playoff chances. These teams are primarily focused on evaluating young talent for future seasons:
- New York Jets: Playoff chances at 0.2%; evaluating a new quarterback is critical.
- Arizona Cardinals: Playoff aspirations are slim at 0.3%; focus on future development.
This intricate tier system showcases the multifaceted nature of team performance and the unpredictable nature of the NFL season. As Week 18 approaches, each game will play a crucial role in determining playoff futures.
