Men’s college basketball is notorious for its unpredictability, particularly during the NCAA Tournament. A single elimination can abruptly end a season, making it challenging to forecast a champion. Recent data reveals only four out of the last 15 national champions had preseason odds shorter than +1200, with Baylor being the most recent at +800 during the 2020-21 season.
Purdue’s Title Hopes
As the 2025-26 season approaches, Purdue emerges as the favorite for the national championship. The Boilermakers have odds set at +850 by ESPN BET, varying between +750 and +950 among various sportsbooks. Close behind are the Houston Cougars, also sitting at +850 with ESPN BET and +950 at DraftKings.
DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello emphasized the competitive nature of the current landscape, stating, “It’s wide open… there are opportunities for many different teams to win this thing.” Traditional powerhouse teams like Duke (+1100), UConn (+1400), and Kentucky (+1500) remain relevant, though Duke’s odds have decreased significantly due to offseason losses.
| Team | Odds (ESPN BET) |
|---|---|
| Purdue | +850 |
| Houston | +850 |
| Duke | +1100 |
| UConn | +1400 |
| Kentucky | +1500 |
The Role of the Transfer Portal
Changes in rosters through the transfer portal complicate predictions further. Caesars trader Patrick Berbert noted the importance of tracking player movement. The Boilermakers’ odds have surged from +2000 to +750, primarily due to offseason excitement surrounding their potential.
BetMGM’s senior trader, Michael Ranftle, highlighted their focus on returning talent, recruiting, and schedules while noting that the field appears unusually open. He mentioned 15 teams with +2500 or shorter odds, including Purdue and Houston as major draws for bettors.
Potential Sleeper Teams
Last season, the Florida Gators surprised many by winning the national championship after starting the season around +6000. Their dominant performance throughout the SEC and non-conference play helped them emerge as a top seed. The upcoming season could see fresh contenders rise similarly.
For example, teams like BYU (+2200) and historical powers like UCLA (+2800) and Arizona (+4000) are potential dark horses, capable of generating significant adjustments in odds based on their early-season performances.
Wooden Award Contenders
Braden Smith from Purdue stands out as the frontrunner for the prestigious Wooden Award. This recognition honors the most outstanding player in college basketball. Smith’s odds at ESPN BET sit at +450, with Caesars offering even shorter odds of +285.
Bookmakers believe Smith’s chances hinge not only on individual performance but also on Purdue’s overall success. He is on track to potentially break NCAA assists records, enhancing his appeal to voters. Freshmen like Kansas’ Darryn Peterson (+750) and Duke’s Cameron Boozer (+1000) are also garnering attention in the award race.
While upcoming seasons are bound to present surprises, the blend of returning talent, new additions, and strategic shifts promises an exciting college basketball landscape.
