The latest Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey revealed significant insights regarding the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial race. Democrat Abigail Spanberger has established an 11-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, with current support levels at 55% and 44% respectively.
Key Findings of the Poll
The poll indicates that Spanberger gained three points since last month, while Earle-Sears saw a two-point increase. Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Spanberger’s support among men appears to be growing. Previously evenly split, men now favor Spanberger 52% to 46%.
Attorney General Race
In the contest for Attorney General, Democrat Jay Jones leads with 49%, closely followed by incumbent Republican Jason Miyares at 47%. Four percent of voters remain undecided. When considering preferences among undecided voters, support for Jones rises to 51%, while Miyares’s support increases to 49%.
- Early voters favor Jones 56% to 44%.
- Remaining voters tend to support Miyares 50% to 43%.
- Men back Miyares 50% to 46%; women prefer Jones 51% to 45%.
Voter Sentiments and Issues
The poll also revealed that former President Donald Trump’s job approval rating is 45%, with 54% disapproving of his performance. In contrast, Governor Glenn Youngkin’s approval stands at 49% against 39% disapproval.
Interestingly, 13% of Youngkin’s approving voters intend to support Spanberger, while none of the disapproving voters favor Earle-Sears. The economy is the major concern for 39% of voters, followed by:
- Threats to democracy: 16%
- Healthcare: 10%
- Immigration: 9%
- Education: 7%
- Housing affordability: 6%
Among those who see the economy as the primary issue, Spanberger leads with 53% support against Earle-Sears’s 46%.
Poll Methodology
The Emerson College Polling survey was conducted from October 30 to 31, 2025, targeting likely voters in Virginia. The sample included 880 participants and carries a credibility interval of +/- 3.2 percentage points. Factors such as gender, education, race, age, party affiliation, and voter history were taken into account for data weighting.
Data collection involved contacting potential voters via text message, supported by additional responses from a probability panel. The survey was conducted in English.
