Early voting insights reveal patterns in the New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City elections, suggesting trends that may impact outcomes. The data indicates Democratic candidates in New Jersey and Virginia are performing better than previous elections, including the performance of Kamala Harris last year.
New Jersey Early Voting Insights
In New Jersey, early voting statistics highlight a notable Democratic advantage heading into the final weekend. Current data shows Democrats, led by US Representative Mikie Sherrill, outperform Republicans in both mail and early in-person voting.
Specifically, registered Democrats have returned mail ballots at a margin of over 41 points compared to Republicans. This is an improvement from the 39-point gap noted last year. Furthermore, Democrats currently hold a nearly 2-point lead in early in-person voting, which reflects a significant shift from last year’s 2-point deficit.
Key Statistics
- Mail Ballots: 41-point lead for Democrats
- In-Person Voting: 2-point lead for Democrats
This year, mail ballots constitute a larger share of the pre-election votes than in previous elections. This indicates a more robust Democratic electorate, particularly as older voters are contributing significantly to the turnout.
New York City Overview
In New York City, candidate Andrew Cuomo appears to be in a competitive position. However, increased engagement from younger voters could benefit Zohran Mamdani, a promising candidate attracting considerable attention.
Analysis through October 31 reveals that about 53% of registered Democratic voters are aged 50 and older, while approximately 16% fall within the 18 to 29 age range. Comparatively, the previous primary saw 48% of voters aged 50 and above and 18% aged 18 to 29. Early voting has been trending younger this week.
Demographic Changes
- Voters Aged 50 and Up: 53%
- Voters Aged 18-29: 16%
This year’s turnout of younger voters remains higher than in the 2021 mayoral election, where only 9% of voters were aged 18 to 29. Daily turnout data indicates that the gap in participation between older and younger voters has decreased significantly.
Virginia’s Election Landscape
Virginia’s early voting data suggests that Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is edging ahead of Republican opponents. The geographic distribution of early votes indicates some advantages for Spanberger compared to last year’s election involving Harris.
Although there seems to be a slight Republican edge in early in-person votes, mail ballots—which typically favor Democrats—make up a larger share of the overall pre-election vote this year. Currently, mail ballots represent 24%, compared to 21% last year.
County Voting Trends
- Trump Counties: 61% in-person votes compared to last year
- Harris Counties: 57% in-person votes compared to last year
Overall, the pre-election landscape is shifting favorably for Democratic candidates across these key areas, setting the stage for potentially impactful elections on November 4.
