On October 29, 2023, U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Gyeongju, South Korea, for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. His agenda includes a significant sideline meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for October 30 in Busan, over an hour away from the summit’s main venue.
APEC Summit: The Significance of the Xi-Trump Meeting
This meeting marks the first face-to-face encounter between the leaders since Trump began his second term. Such sideline meetings have become increasingly common since Xi took office in 2014, with eight similar encounters occurring during major multilateral discussions.
Understanding Sideline Meetings
- Definition: Sideline meetings occur during large conferences, typically allowing leaders to discuss critical issues informally.
- Cost-Effectiveness: Holding these discussions outside formal gatherings reduces logistical costs, such as state banquets and ceremonial activities.
- Political Implications: For leaders of adversarial nations, formality can provoke nationalist backlash, making informal meetings a strategic choice.
Since 2018, most U.S.-China dialogues have taken place during events like G20 and APEC, primarily due to the deterioration of relations following the trade war. The last state visit of a Chinese leader to the U.S. was in 2015, with former President Obama as host. In contrast, Trump’s reciprocal visit to China, classified as a special state visit in 2017, remains the most recent formal engagement.
Potential Outcomes of the Meeting
Experts suggest that sideline meetings often yield substantive results. For instance, significant agreements have emerged during past APEC interactions. Recent encounters between Xi and Trump have resulted in dialogues about military communication and the fentanyl crisis.
Key focuses for the upcoming meeting may involve critical topics such as:
- Rare earth elements
- U.S. agricultural imports
- Fentanyl agreements
- Social media regulations regarding TikTok
Despite the anticipated discussions, some analysts warn that no substantial agreements are likely to emerge. Political science experts argue that while there might be some adjustments in U.S.-China relations, the fundamental competitive nature of their relationship remains unchanged.
Trump’s Future Plans for China
Recent reports indicate that Trump received an invitation to visit China, potentially for early next year. If realized, this would represent the first formal visit by a U.S. leader to China in eight years, offering both leaders a platform to enhance their political standing.
Trump’s engagement strategy emphasizes demonstrating a willingness to negotiate, while Xi aims to project a strong image of leadership on the global stage. The significance of this meeting extends beyond immediate outcomes, symbolizing a potential thaw in bilateral relations amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
In conclusion, while the Xi-Trump meeting during the APEC summit is a pivotal event, experts remain cautious about its potential to produce significant agreements, given the backdrop of complex geopolitical tensions.
