Since its 1995 referendums, Quebec has made significant socio-economic and public finance advancements. A recent analysis by researchers Luc Godbout and Suzie St-Cerny from the Université de Sherbrooke highlights these developments. This assessment coincides with the 30th anniversary of the second sovereignty referendum.
Economic Growth Over 30 Years of Independence
Throughout the past three decades, Quebec’s economy has consistently outperformed the rest of Canada. From 1995 to 2024, Quebec’s per capita economic growth was 42%, compared to 34% nationally. This has helped close the wealth gap with Ontario, decreasing from 16% to 10%.
Employment Trends
Quebec’s employment rates have also improved remarkably. The employment rate surpassed the Canadian average, particularly driven by a surge in female workforce participation. Women aged 25 to 54 with preschool-aged children saw their employment rate rise from 58.6% to 81.2% due to affordable childcare services and more generous parental leave.
- Quebec’s unemployment rate fell from 11.5% in 1995 to 5.4% in 2024.
- Canada’s average unemployment rate was 9.6% in 1995 and is now 6.5%.
Social Assistance and Inequality
The proportion of people under 65 receiving social assistance also decreased significantly. In 1997-1998, it stood at 11.8% in Quebec, compared to 10.1% in Canada. By 2023-2024, these figures dropped to 4.8% and 5.8%, respectively.
Additionally, Quebec has experienced a slight reduction in income inequality after taxes, while it has increased nationally.
Public Finances Improvement
Despite challenges from an aging population and generous social programs, Quebec has managed its public finances effectively. The tax burden increased from 37.5% of GDP in 1995 to 39.7% in 2023. While higher than the Canadian average of 34.9%, it is still lower than countries like Sweden and France.
Quebec implemented fiscal rules to balance budgets and reduce debt, with net debt relative to GDP decreasing from between 60% and 67% in 2001 to between 53% and 57% in 2023.
Comparative Debt Analysis
| Region/Country | Debt as % of GDP (2023) |
|---|---|
| Quebec | 53% – 57% |
| Canada | 14% |
| Germany | 38.1% |
| United Kingdom | 92% |
| United States | 94% |
| France | 102% |
Looking Toward the Future
The findings from the Université de Sherbrooke indicate that Quebec has leveraged its position within Canada to achieve notable socio-economic progress. However, the question remains as to what could be achieved through independence.
Despite ongoing challenges such as demographic shifts, housing issues, homelessness, and environmental concerns, Quebec’s commitment to innovation, including initiatives like its carbon market, sets it apart in Canada.
As Quebec faces various pressing issues, the focus will be on navigating these while continuing to drive economic advancement.
