Recent polling in New Jersey’s gubernatorial race indicates Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding a lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. This election season has been heavily influenced by former President Donald Trump and his impact on voters’ perceptions.
Impact of Phil Murphy’s Approval on the Race
Sherrill’s lead is also linked to public sentiment regarding the current Governor, Phil Murphy. According to a Fox News poll conducted from October 10-14, 47% of voters viewed Murphy favorably, while 49% had an unfavorable opinion. Sherrill’s lead over Ciattarelli stood at 5 points within the margin of error.
Polling Insights
In polls where Murphy had a higher approval rating—between 47% and 48%—Sherrill consistently outperformed Ciattarelli. Conversely, two polls showing Murphy’s approval at 35% resulted in a tighter race, with a tie in support for both candidates. This fluctuation indicates that Murphy’s standing is critical in shaping voter opinions.
- Poll Results:
- Fox News Survey: Sherrill +7 points, 48% support
- Quinnipiac Survey: Sherrill +8 points, 49% support
- Emerson College Survey: Tied at 43% for both candidates
Candidate Strategies and Messages
Ciattarelli has positioned himself against Murphy’s administration, blaming it for New Jersey’s ongoing challenges. His advertisements state, “Politicians like Mikie Sherrill and Phil Murphy just don’t get it.” He frames his campaign as a necessary change to address affordability issues in the state.
In contrast, Sherrill has attempted to distance herself from Murphy, particularly regarding rising electricity costs. She has vowed to advocate for families, stating, “I’ll also fight Trenton to bring down costs for families.” This approach allows her to appeal to voters seeking a fresh perspective.
The Role of Trump’s Influence
Trump’s approval rating remains stagnant in the low 40s, consistently around 41%. Sherrill has leveraged this by connecting Ciattarelli to Trump, who has endorsed him. Meanwhile, Ciattarelli has responded to attacks by clarifying that Trump’s policies do not necessarily impact local issues, such as property taxes.
Debate Highlights
In a recent debate, the candidates were asked to evaluate Murphy’s government. Sherrill awarded him a grade of B, crediting improvements like pension payments and credit rating increases, but acknowledged room for improvement. She promised a “culture shift” in Trenton to enhance accountability and reduce living costs.
Conversely, Ciattarelli gave Murphy an F, declaration that the state suffers from various crises, including affordability, education quality, and public safety. His critique paints Murphy’s tenure as a significant failure while highlighting the need for immediate change.
Comparative Approval Ratings
Overall, Murphy’s approval ratings fare better than those of former GOP Governor Chris Christie during his final years. In an October 2017 Fox News survey, only 21% viewed Christie favorably, contrasting sharply with Murphy’s current ratings.
As the race unfolds towards November, the influence of both national and local sentiments will play a crucial role in shaping voter turnout and the ultimate outcome.
