Weekly prediction market volume has surged to an unprecedented peak, surpassing $2 billion. The notable rise is attributed to Polymarket regaining its lead over Kalshi after eight weeks of lower trading activity.
Record Volume in Prediction Markets
In the past week, prediction market transactions reached $2 billion, marking a significant milestone. Sports betting led the charge with a record $414.7 million in volume. This surpassed political markets, which generated $322.6 million amid rising election interest as November approaches.
Key Players and Their Valuations
- Polymarket: $1 billion in weekly volume, valued at $9 billion after a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange.
- Kalshi: $950 million in weekly volume, recently raised $300 million at a $5 billion valuation.
- Limitless: Increased to $21.9 million in volume.
- Myriad: Now at $3.8 million in weekly volume.
The competition between Polymarket and Kalshi has intensified. Kalshi, established as the first federally regulated prediction market platform in the U.S., initially surpassed Polymarket as the NFL season began in August.
Regulatory Landscape and Market Growth
The industry has benefited from a favorable regulatory environment. Earlier this year, both platforms received no-action letters from the CFTC. This development allowed them to serve U.S. users without federal regulatory concerns. Yet, challenges from state regulators regarding their CFTC status remain ongoing.
Future Projections and Market Potential
As interest in prediction markets grows, company valuations have soared. A report from Certainty projects that the prediction market industry could reach a staggering $95.5 billion by 2035. This would reflect a compound annual growth rate of 46.8%.
Despite the excitement surrounding token launches, skepticism remains. Many users anticipate that Polymarket will announce a native token, though predictions for this event range from a possible announcement in 2025 to nearly uncertain timelines.
Conclusion
The rapid growth and rising volumes in prediction markets indicate a significant shift toward mainstream acceptance. As the competitive landscape evolves and regulatory hurdles are navigated, investors will closely watch the development of Polymarket and Kalshi.
