Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to develop in the Caribbean Sea in the coming days. However, its trajectory remains uncertain, with multiple potential scenarios unfolding this week.
National Hurricane Center Monitors Development
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a disturbance referred to as Invest 98L. This tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea and is anticipated to develop by mid-week.
Currently, there is a significant area of showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance. Wind speeds are being recorded at 30 to 40 mph, but high wind shear is hindering rapid development.
Tropical Wave Characteristics
- Location: Eastern Caribbean Sea
- Invest Identifier: 98L
- Wind Speeds: 30 to 40 mph
- Current Challenges: Wind shear affecting development
Potential Outcomes for Tropical Storm Melissa
As the week progresses, there are three main scenarios for Tropical Storm Melissa:
- Quick Northward Turn: The system could become a named storm and move northeastward after passing over Hispaniola.
- Westward Track into Central America: Melissa may continue moving westward over warm waters into Central America.
- Later Northward Curve: A delayed northward shift could bring impacts to Cuba, the Bahamas, and potentially the U.S. by the following week.
Factors Influencing Development
The potential for Melissa’s development depends on several factors, including ocean heat content. The presence of warm, deep water in the Atlantic is crucial for tropical systems.
As weather patterns evolve, the situation is fluid. It’s essential to stay updated on the developments of Tropical Storm Melissa as conditions may change rapidly. El-Balad will provide continuous updates on this developing story.
