The Social Security Administration’s annual announcement regarding cost-of-living adjustments (COLA) for benefits has been postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. The upcoming announcement is now scheduled for October 24.
Delayed COLA Announcement
Every year, the Social Security Administration adjusts benefit amounts based on inflation through COLA. This adjustment reflects the changes in the consumer price index (CPI), which is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The inflation calculation for COLA relies on the annual changes in the CPI.
Impact of Government Shutdown on CPI Data
- The BLS was unable to release the September CPI data as scheduled on October 15 due to the government shutdown.
- To expedite the CPI report, the BLS has recalled some furloughed workers.
- The updated CPI data will be available on October 24, coinciding with the COLA announcement from the Social Security Administration.
Projected COLA for 2026
Experts are forecasting that the COLA for 2026 will be between 2.7% and 2.8%. This expected increase is higher than the 2.5% adjustment implemented for 2025. The Senior Citizens League recently estimated that the 2026 COLA would raise the average monthly benefit for retirees from $2,009 to approximately $2,062.
Historical Perspective on COLA Adjustments
| Year | COLA Percentage |
|---|---|
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2010-2011 | 0% |
Historically, the average COLA adjustment over the past two decades has been about 2.6%. The highest adjustment during this period was noted in 2023, while there were no adjustments in 2010 and 2011.
Future Outlook on Social Security
While a 2.7% COLA appears stable based on historical data, concerns have been raised about Social Security’s long-term sustainability. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget forecasts a slightly higher increase of 2.8% for 2026, emphasizing the need for ongoing analysis of inflation and benefit adjustments.
