The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on October 24. This report is crucial for calculating the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026, affecting millions of retirees and beneficiaries. The report was originally set to be published on October 15 but was delayed due to the government shutdown that began on October 1.
Impact of Government Shutdown on Economic Data Collection
The government shutdown has halted the collection and processing of several key economic reports. The BLS remarked that while they can publish the CPI report, other data remains on hold until normal operations resume. This suspension may lead to volatility in the October CPI figures, as a third of the necessary data is already unavailable.
- Government Shutdown: Started on October 1, 2023.
- Rescheduled CPI Release: October 24, 2023.
- Original Release Date: October 15, 2023.
Significance of the September CPI Report
The CPI report is vital for the Social Security Administration, which uses it to determine annual COLA adjustments. The data from the third quarter of 2024 to the third quarter of 2025 will inform benefit adjustments for 2026. Recent data projections indicate a 2.7% increase in COLA for 2026, which would increase average monthly benefits for retirees.
- Projected 2026 COLA Increase: 2.7%.
- Average Monthly Benefit Increase: From $2,008 to $2,062.
- Total Beneficiaries: More than 72.5 million people.
Future Economic Outlook
The forthcoming CPI report will coincide with the Federal Reserve’s meetings on October 28-29. Experts anticipate a 25 basis point cut to interest rates as the Fed continues to support the labor market. However, concerns linger regarding the accuracy of upcoming CPI data due to the shutdown.
Economists note that the historical context of previous government shutdowns, like in 2013, suggests a similar pattern for missing data this October. They warn this could inflate price averages and impact reporting through the end of the year.
Key Points on Economic Data Reliability
- Future CPI data may be skewed due to incomplete price collection.
- Impact on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is expected.
- Clean CPI data will be delayed, with December reports not available until mid-January.
Despite hiccups in data collection, experts emphasize that the underlying employment information remains intact, potentially producing reliable payroll estimates even amidst disruptions. Nevertheless, the current situation highlights significant challenges in ensuring accurate economic reporting during federal operational interruptions.
