As the college football season heats up, several matchups are scheduled for Friday, October 10th. Here, we focus on two key games featuring trending betting lines and team performances.
Friday Night Lights Matchups Overview
South Florida vs. North Texas
- South Florida: Record of 4-1 and currently ranked 24th.
- Recent Game: Victory over Charlotte with a score of 54-26, covering a spread as 27.5-point home favorites.
- North Texas: Undefeated with a record of 5-0.
- Recent Game: Outlasted South Alabama 36-22, covering as 13-point home favorites.
The opening line positioned North Texas as a 1.5-point favorite. This move puzzled fans, as it favored an unranked team over a ranked opponent. Public perception indicated that 68% of spread bets were backing South Florida, suggesting the popular belief that the wrong team was favored.
However, the line shifted toward North Texas, increasing to -2.5, indicating a contrarian move to favor the home team. At DraftKings, North Texas garnered 32% of spread bets but attracted 48% of total spread dollars. Circa Sports showed North Texas with 45% of spread bets and 65% of spread dollars, demonstrating strong sharp money on the home favorite.
Betting Insights on North Texas
For those favoring North Texas but seeking additional assurance, the moneyline at -130 presents a viable option. Notably, at Circa, 55% of moneyline bets supported North Texas, equating to a staggering 96% of moneyline dollars. Historical data reveals that unranked home favorites against ranked teams have performed well, with a 67% straight-up record this season.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State
- Fresno State: Holds a record of 5-1.
- Recent Game: Narrow win against Nevada, scoring 20-17, but failed to cover as 12-point favorites.
- Colorado State: Struggling with a record of 1-4.
- Recent Game: Lost to San Diego State 45-24, not covering as 4.5-point underdogs.
This matchup opened with Fresno State as a 6.5-point favorite. Despite receiving 70% of spread bets at DraftKings, the line remained stagnant at -6.5, indicating a potential line freeze in favor of Colorado State. The Rams are identified as a contrarian play, capturing only 30% of spread bets, yet 94% of spread dollars at Circa, another example of sharp money backing the underdog.
Betting Trends for Colorado State
Home conference dogs have historically been strong bets, achieving a 57% cover rate this season. Colorado State, currently on a three-game losing streak, presents a low-risk opportunity against a popular Fresno State team on a five-game winning streak. Notably, Colorado State enjoys a slight rest advantage, having last played on October 3rd compared to Fresno State’s game on October 4th.
