Welcome to Week Nine of El-Balad’s “Patience or Panic” series, where we delve into the precarious status of three underperforming players in Major League Baseball. This week, we examine the stark declines of Manny Machado, Sal Frelick, and Marcus Semien. Are they simply slumping, or is the time to start fresh upon us?
Manny Machado: The Weight of Expectations
At first glance, the underwhelming performance of Manny Machado, third baseman for the San Diego Padres, seems overshadowed by teammate Fernando Tatis Jr.’s struggles. However, Machado’s lack of production is alarming in its own right. Presently, he sits at an abysmal .174/.271/.337 line, amounting to a .608 OPS and a disappointing 75 wRC+. With only eight home runs and 25 RBIs, it’s hard to overlook the severity of his struggles.
Machine numbers reveal an unsettling reality: out of 170 qualified hitters, Machado ranks 153rd in both OPS and wOBA. He’s never generated so much weak contact, now at 6.1%, which is a drastic increase from previous seasons. This uptick in weak hits affects his power metrics significantly, as evidenced by a career-low Barrel% and HardHit%. Ironically, despite poor performance, Machado leads the team in RBIs, obscuring his struggles on the larger baseball stage.
To add another layer, he’s grappling with unfortunate luck, as reflected in the 14th-largest gap between his actual and expected batting averages. His bat speed, while previously elite, has dipped to the 72nd percentile, making it problematic to catch up to faster pitches. As teams are increasingly throwing hard stuff at him, Machado’s effectiveness diminishes further.
| Metrics | 2022 | 2023 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | .298 | .174 | -124 |
| OPS | .897 | .608 | -289 |
| Barrel% | 6.5% | 4.4% | -2.1% |
The verdict? Don’t throw in the towel. The Padres’ systemic offensive issues suggest Machado’s struggles are not entirely his fault. Improvement could arise if the organization addresses deeper systematic failings.
Sal Frelick: The Slap-Hitter Crisis
The Milwaukee Brewers appear to be grappling with yet another disappointment in Sal Frelick. The 25-year-old outfielder enjoyed a productive 2025 but now find himself in a precarious slump, resting at .217/.287/.298 and a mere 67 wRC+. In an industry rife with power hitters, Frelick is losing ground fast, landing 12th-worst in baseball for OPS.
As a traditionally slap-hitting, contact-oriented player, Frelick lacks the power metrics that typically attract attention. His career exit velocity is in the first percentile, underscoring the challenges he faces in a league trending toward explosive bat speed. This season, pitchers have tailored their approach, targeting his weakness against fastballs—with a staggering 67.8% of offerings being four-seamers. His ineffectiveness against these pitches has morphed from a season prior, where he demonstrated marginal proficiency. The question lingers: why the sudden dip?
| Metrics | 2025 | 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | .288 | .217 | -71 |
| OPS | .756 | .585 | -171 |
| 4-Seamer Run Value | +3 | -6 | -9 |
The verdict? Stay away. A lack of solid contact indicates that Frelick may not bounce back this season. With little to no power potential and declining contact metrics, the Brewers would be wise to investigate alternatives.
Marcus Semien: The Veteran in Decline
The New York Mets face a troubling reality with Marcus Semien. At the age of 35, he’s seen both his youth and elite capability dwindle. Presently hitting .214/.263/.297 with a 65 wRC+, Semien struggles to make a meaningful impact. His clutch numbers may shine, but they cannot overshadow a persistent pattern of decline. For Semien, it’s a consistent battle to match previous performances, including a crucial decrease in his walk rate, sitting at a career-worst 6.3%.
A troubling trend reveals itself when examining opposing pitchers’ approach. Semien now faces an increased number of breaking balls, leading to a significant drop in his effectiveness. As teams remain oblivious to his strong numbers against fastballs and offspeed pitches, where he can still deliver, his struggles against breaking balls reflect inefficiencies that could jeopardize his future.
| Metrics | 2023 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | .238 | .214 | -24 |
| OPS | .800 | .560 | -240 |
| Breaking Ball AVG | .267 | .139 | -128 |
The verdict? Time to sell. Semien is unlikely to rebound, reflecting the broader malaise pervading the Mets’ roster. With regression looming larger, the best route is exploring potential trades.
Projected Outcomes: What Lies Ahead
As the season unfolds, several critical developments will play out involving these three players:
- Manny Machado may see a gradual uptick in numbers if the Padres adjust their coaching strategy, focusing on contact-oriented training.
- Sal Frelick risks remaining marginalized if teams continue exploiting his weaknesses with fastballs, urging the Brewers to reconsider their batting approach.
- Marcus Semien could face a trade or benching should his performance continue its downward trajectory, opening avenues for younger players within the Mets’ organization.
In the volatile realm of sports, every week offers a new timeline of potential and pitfalls. For Machado, Frelick, and Semien, the interplay of factors will be critical in determining their long-term futures in Major League Baseball.
