The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released updates on the global economy, showcasing its resilience against numerous shocks. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the IMF, delivered these insights at the Milken Institute in Washington, D.C., on October 8, 2025.
Global Economic Forecast: Growth and Risks
Despite challenges, the world economy is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate. The IMF forecasts global growth at approximately 3% through 2026. This marks a slight downward adjustment from pre-pandemic expectations of 3.7%.
U.S. Economy Holds Strong
Recent data indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy, whichpreviously faced recession fears. However, sound policies, a flexible private sector, and favorable financial conditions helped the economy remain afloat. Georgieva noted that the risks of a recession have lessened compared to earlier predictions.
- IMF growth forecast for 2025: 3.0%
- IMF growth forecast for 2026: 3.1%
Concerns Ahead
While global outputs are stronger than expected, Georgieva warned of persistent uncertainties. These uncertainties have heightened demand for gold, viewed by many as a safe-haven investment. The IMF chief highlighted that gold holdings now account for more than 20% of the world’s official reserves.
Moreover, global public debt is projected to surpass 100% of GDP by 2029, raising concerns regarding financial stability.
Recommendations for Sustainable Growth
To enhance growth, Georgieva urged nations to refine economic policies. Key recommendations include:
- Boosting private-sector productivity
- Consolidating fiscal spending
- Reducing national debt levels
- Addressing current account imbalances
Regional Insights
Georgieva offered region-specific advice:
- Asia: Strengthen the service sector and reduce non-tariff barriers to enhance regional integration.
- Sub-Saharan Africa: Implement business-friendly reforms to improve GDP per capita.
- Europe: Advance efforts towards a single market to accelerate economic development.
- United States: Undertake measures to lower federal debt and encourage household savings.
- China: Increase fiscal support for social protection while scaling back industrial policy spending.
As uncertainty becomes the defining feature of the current economic climate, Georgieva emphasizes the importance of preparedness. Policymakers must focus on structural reforms to build resilience for future challenges.
