The current state of math and reading scores among U.S. students reveals a troubling trajectory, rooted in a gradual “learning recession” that extends back a decade before the COVID-19 pandemic. The latest Education Scorecard from El-Balad—a collaborative effort from the Educational Opportunity Project at Stanford University and Harvard University’s Center for Education Policy Research—illuminates this decline while shedding light on emerging pathways for recovery. This piece delves into the dynamics at play and the implications for students, educators, and policymakers, revealing underlying motivations and strategic maneuvers amidst pervasive challenges in public education.
Before and After: Unpacking the Learning Recession
For over 20 years prior to 2013, math achievement among fourth and eighth graders experienced steady growth, indicating a system that, at least for a time, delivered substantial educational improvements. From 1990 to 2013, math scores soared to the extent that a fourth grader in 2013 could perform at a level comparable to a sixth grader in 1990. However, the scorecard indicates an alarming decline commenced around 2013, characterized by stagnation and regression in reading. This trend epitomizes a more profound narrative of educational decay—a point made starkly by Stanford’s Sean Reardon.
Table: Before vs. After – Impact on Stakeholders
| Stakeholder | Before (2013) | After (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Students | Steady growth in math and reading; narrowing racial achievement gaps | Stagnation for most states; only Louisiana returned to pre-pandemic levels |
| Teachers | Motivated by accountability from NCLB | Diminished accountability; struggles to adapt teaching methods |
| Policymakers | Increased funding and legislative support for education | Pressure to implement effective recovery strategies amidst rising discontent |
| Communities | Community support for educational improvements | Increasing concern over educational quality and future implications |
Contributing Factors to the Decline
This marked decline in educational performance can be attributed to two main factors. First, the diminishing edge of test-based accountability, particularly after the No Child Left Behind Act was rolled back, released districts from rigorous scrutiny. As Kane observes, the lack of oversight permitted schools to lower their performance standards without immediate repercussions, a tactic that ultimately exacerbated educational shortcomings.
Secondly, the extraordinary rise in social media usage among teens starting in 2013 posed a significant distraction. Data indicates that prolonged engagement with social media correlates directly with lower academic achievement, particularly in students already facing challenges. The consequences of this dual-pronged attack on educational efficacy set the stage for detrimental learning outcomes for a significant portion of the student population, providing a growing chasm between high and low performers that widened prior to the pandemic.
Emerging Trends and Recovery Efforts
Despite the challenges, the Scorecard offers glimmers of hope for recovery, particularly in math scores, with Washington D.C. emerging as a leader in this resurgence. Almost all states have recorded improvements in math since the pandemic’s conclusion—except for a handful struggling to regain past performance. In reading, however, the situation demands urgent attention, with numerous states experiencing stagnation or further decline.
The revival of educational fortunes can be attributed largely to federal pandemic relief, which provided the necessary funding for intervention strategies. Areas with greater poverty received more resources, allowing schools to offer tutoring, summer programs, and other essential support to elevate academic performance. Conversely, middle-income districts, which often possess fragile support systems, found themselves lagging behind.
The Science of Reading Movement
A transformative wave in literacy education has also risen from this educational landscape: the “science of reading” initiative. By placing a renewed emphasis on phonics at the core of literacy instruction, states witnessing reading gains have adopted comprehensive reforms that often mirror those of successful districts like Baltimore City Public Schools. Under the leadership of CEO Sonja Brookins Santelises, Baltimore’s early embrace of these evidence-based strategies has resulted in impressive reading improvements.
For instance, despite socioeconomic challenges, schools in Baltimore have shown remarkable resilience, mitigating pandemic-related losses and even surpassing pre-pandemic reading performance levels. Santelises’s insistence on prioritizing phonics and rigorous literacy practices has resulted in high engagement and marked success among students during challenging times.
Projected Outcomes: The Horizon Ahead
As the educational landscape evolves, we can anticipate several key developments in the coming weeks and months:
- Continued legislative support for funding initiatives that foster recovery, particularly in under-resourced districts.
- An increasing trend toward adopting the science of reading curriculum among states, aiming to combat the persistent stagnation in reading scores.
- A heightened emphasis on redefining the standards of accountability to ensure long-term student performance rather than temporary gains.
The implications of these trends could resonate well beyond the classroom, impacting broader socio-economic equality and ultimately setting a course for the future of education across the U.S. The path to restructuring America’s education system is fraught with challenges, yet the resilience of educators, policymakers, and communities stands as a testament to the potential for renewal and growth.
