Quebec is bracing for significant rainfall this Tuesday, following a prolonged period of heat. The anticipated precipitation is crucial, as many regions have been experiencing dry conditions.
Rainfall Forecast for Tuesday
The rainfall is expected to begin in the early afternoon. Regions likely to be affected include:
- Outaouais: Rain starting early afternoon.
- Montreal: Rain anticipated by mid-afternoon, intensifying into the evening.
- Estrie and Beauce: Expect rain in the early evening, with potential intensification.
Rainfall Amounts and Potential Risks
Forecasts suggest varying rainfall amounts across the province:
- Up to 40 mm in parts of Estrie and Beauce.
- 20 to 30 mm expected in the Montreal area and Montérégie.
- 10 to 20 mm for Outaouais, Laurentians, and parts of the National Capital region.
- Between 5 to 10 mm elsewhere in Quebec.
While thunderstorms are a possibility, severe weather is not anticipated. Wind gusts may reach 60 km/h in certain areas, but the primary concern remains the volume of rain.
Timing and Intensity of Rainfall
Critical moments for rainfall intensity may occur as follows:
- Outaouais will see the heaviest rain first, starting early afternoon.
- Montreal and Quebec will experience heavier rainfall from late afternoon into early evening.
- In Estrie and Beauce, rainfall may peak during mid-evening.
The duration of the rain is expected to taper off by late evening, transitioning into the night.
Concerns About Dry Soil and Localized Flooding
Localized flooding may occur, especially since the ground is extremely dry in many areas. This dryness limits the soil’s ability to absorb heavy rain, potentially causing rapid runoff and quick accumulation of water.
The forest fire prevention organization (SOPFEU) has enacted an open burning ban due to the dry conditions. The last significant rainfall in Montreal occurred on September 4, when less than 18 mm was recorded.
Comparisons to Past Weather Events
Some residents may recall the severe weather event on October 7, 2023, when Montreal received over 100 mm of rain. Although current conditions resemble that situation, a crucial difference lies in the front’s movement. The upcoming front is not expected to stall, which should mitigate the risk of unprecedented rainfall like that experienced in 2023.
As Quebec prepares for this weather event, it is essential for residents to stay informed and take necessary precautions to address possible flooding.
