Tropical Storm Jerry has emerged over the central Atlantic, marking the 10th named storm of the season. It formed on Tuesday and is forecasted to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday. As of 11 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Jerry’s sustained winds were recorded at 45 mph.
Tropical Storm Jerry’s Current Status
The storm is situated approximately 1,300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and is advancing westward. According to the National Hurricane Center, Jerry is expected to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands later this week, potentially escalating to a Category 1 hurricane.
Expected Impact on the Leeward Islands
- Jerry could bring significant rain and wind to the islands.
- Tropical storm watches may be issued depending on the storm’s exact path.
Jerry’s Trajectory and Threat Level
Fortunately, Jerry is not anticipated to pose a threat to the mainland United States. A cold front sweeping off the East Coast is expected to deflect the storm out to sea, reducing its impact on land. Cold fronts like this are common in October, which is pivotal for hurricane trajectories.
Future Storm Developments
Forecasters are monitoring the potential for other storm formations in the coming weeks. Although there is a low chance for development in the southwest Gulf later this week, a significant weather pattern, known as the Central American Gyre, may generate storms by mid-October. This gyre is known for creating late-season tropical systems.
Trends in Late Hurricane Season
Typically, four named storms occur in October and November. However, there is variability each season. In the previous year, seven storms were recorded during the same period, while only two formed this October.
Historical Context
- Hurricane Michael struck the U.S. as a Category 5 on October 10, 2018.
- Hurricane Matthew caused significant damage from the Caribbean to the Carolinas in 2016.
- Hurricane Sandy became a hybrid superstorm in late October 2012, impacting the East Coast severely.
This year, the Atlantic experienced a sudden increase in storm activity after a period of quiet. Following Hurricane Erin’s rapid intensification in mid-August, three hurricanes—Gabrielle, Humberto, and Imelda—emerged in a two-week span to close September.
As of now, there have been no reported hurricane landfalls in the U.S. this season. If this trend continues through November, it will mark the first landfall-free hurricane season in a decade.
