Recent employment data reveals that job growth in the United States was virtually stagnant in September 2025. This finding was reported by Carlyle, an investment firm, as part of its analysis during the ongoing government shutdown.
Carlyle’s Employment Data Analysis
Carlyle’s proprietary data indicated an increase of only 17,000 jobs that month. This was a significant decline compared to the previously reported monthly gain of 22,000 jobs in August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which has been suspended due to the shutdown.
Impact of Government Shutdown
- The BLS is currently unable to release updated employment statistics.
- Wall Street firms, including Carlyle, are thus using alternative measures to understand economic trends.
Carlyle’s findings align with other reports indicating minimal hiring activity. For example, payroll processor ADP noted a reduction of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, influenced by adjustments from BLS revisions. Additionally, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported a drop in planned hiring for companies, the lowest level since the 2009 financial crisis.
Positive Economic Indicators
Despite the lackluster employment figures, some economic signs remained positive. Carlyle reported:
- Annualized gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 2.7% in September.
- An acceleration in business investment at a 4.8% annual rate over three months.
- A 3.8% decrease in consumer prices for energy.
- A 3.3% increase in services excluding shelter, a critical metric for the Federal Reserve.
Carlyle’s analysis was based on its extensive portfolio, which includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments, and supports around 730,000 employees. While Carlyle identified a slowdown in job growth, Goldman Sachs reported a contrasting figure, suggesting an increase of 80,000 jobs for September.
Labor Market Dynamics
Goldman Sachs also highlighted that the labor market is becoming more flexible, indicating an increase in the number of job seekers above available positions. This development marks a trend not observed in the past decade.
As a result, the employment landscape remains complex, with firms like Carlyle contributing crucial insights during the ongoing data blackout caused by the government stalemate.
