As the U.S. government shutdown continues, economic data essential for analyzing job growth remains unavailable. Analysts, seeking insights through private sources, are receiving mixed signals regarding employment trends. According to Moody’s, September saw a stagnant job growth rate, continuing the trend observed in August.
Moody’s Assessment of U.S. Job Growth
Moody’s chief economist, Mark Zandi, highlighted the challenges in the labor market. While the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a meager increase of only 22,000 jobs in August, private data sources suggest fluctuations in the small job growth seen in September. Zandi noted that Revelio Labs indicated an increase of approximately 60,000 jobs, primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors.
Regional Disparities in Job Growth
- Job growth in September was predominantly in three states: California, New York, and Massachusetts.
- These states rank among the highest in GDP per capita in the U.S.
Additionally, data from ADP revealed a decline of 32,000 private sector jobs last month. Zandi pointed out discrepancies between these sources, suggesting that Revelio’s data might overestimate growth while ADP may underestimate job losses due to ongoing government employment cuts.
Current Economic Landscape
The broader job market, according to Zandi, is showing signs of weakness. Analysts are concerned that the lack of reliable government employment data complicates assessments of economic health. Consumers are expressing diminished confidence in job availability, which has not been this low since the conclusion of the pandemic.
Consumer Confidence and Salary Trends
According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence in job hunting has decreased, potentially contributing to a rise in unemployment rates in September. Data from Glassdoor reveals that while salary growth remains positive year-over-year, there was a slight decline in average salaries from August to September.
- Average salary in September: $71,831.
- Decrease from August’s average: $72,128.
- Year-over-year salary growth: 4.9%, compared to 5.4% the previous month.
Implications of Government Shutdown
The ongoing government shutdown is expected to last beyond mid-October, impacting the release of critical economic datasets. Experts, including those at UBS and Pantheon Macroeconomics, warn that relying solely on private data presents limitations, akin to observing the economy through a narrow keyhole.
Zandi emphasizes the seriousness of the ongoing data gap. He concludes that while private job data is useful, it does not provide a complete picture. As the economic landscape changes, the need for accurate and comprehensive government data becomes increasingly important for informed policy decisions.
