The Climate Impact Company has released its forecast for the 2026 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season, predicting lower-than-average activity. This forecast, issued on April 2, 2026, anticipates 13 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. This year is expected to be the second least active of the past 11 years.
Seasonal Forecast Overview
The upcoming season could see a significant hurricane landfall on the East Coast. Additionally, there is concern about tropical systems originating from Mexico and reforming in the western Gulf of Mexico. The forecast highlights the following key points:
- 13 tropical storms anticipated
- 5 predicted hurricanes
- 3 intense hurricanes expected
Role of El Niño
An El Niño event is predicted for 2026, which typically hampers tropical cyclone formation due to increased upper-level wind shear. Most models forecast a strong El Niño, potentially comparable to those of 1997-1998 and 2015-2016. The significant ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific may fuel this El Niño’s intensity.
Key Influencing Factors
Several climatic factors are likely to affect the 2026 season:
- Upper ocean heat anomalies are observed in the tropical and subtropical regions.
- Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and near Bermuda are predicted to be warmer than average.
- The North Atlantic basin temperatures are marginally warm but are cooling as April progresses.
Tropical Cyclone Development Areas
Forecasts indicate various probabilities for tropical cyclone development. Notably:
- July and August will likely experience low risk for tropical cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.
- September poses a greater risk for the East Coast, with potential for “Cape Verde Storms” impacting from Northern Florida to Virginia.
- A rare opportunity exists for tropical cyclones to cross Mexico into the western Gulf of Mexico, particularly late in the season.
Conclusion
The 2026 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast presents a challenging mix of elements. While the overall activity is expected to remain low, specific risks need to be closely monitored, especially along the East Coast and western Gulf of Mexico. Regular updates will refine these predictions as the season approaches, improving forecast accuracy.
