The weather has played a significant role in shaping the narrative of the 2023 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Following substantial rainfall leading up to the event, the ground condition was described as “proper soft,” affecting the chances of various contenders, particularly those from Japan.
Impact of Soft Ground on Japanese Horses
This year marks a crucial moment for three Japanese contenders: Byzantine Dream, Alohi Alii, and Croix Du Nord. Despite their strong previous performances, the unexpected soft ground presents a challenge, as Japanese racing typically favors faster conditions.
- Byzantine Dream
- Alohi Alii
- Croix Du Nord
Initially, these horses were listed at odds ranging from 8-1 to 16-1. However, following their draw positions and the alterations in the ground conditions, their odds have now shifted to 14-1 or greater. Their task has become more formidable, raising concerns about whether they can perform at their best under such circumstances.
European Contenders Gain Favor
In contrast, European horses are finding new opportunities. Trainers such as André Fabre and Aidan O’Brien have horses that are adapting better to the current ground conditions. Fabre is vying for a record-extending ninth victory and appears confident with his entries:
- Sosie (9-1)
- Cualificar (12-1)
O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk is considered the favorite, having remained unbeaten this season, including wins in pivotal races like the Oaks and Irish Oaks.
Betting Odds Overview
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Minnie Hauk | Favorite (varies) |
| Sosie | 9-1 |
| Cualificar | 12-1 |
| Daryz | 12-1 |
| Aventure | Varies |
The changing dynamics of the race are evident. European horses now dominate the top of the betting market, suggesting that the soft ground has shifted the advantage away from the Japanese contenders. Moving forward, Daryz and Cualificar, both unexposed over the distance, present intriguing options and may offer significant value for bettors on race day.
