Bitcoin is approaching the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with notable momentum, trading at over $74,000. This marks eight straight days of gains for the cryptocurrency. However, a study by bitcoin lender Two Prime indicates that this bullish trend could be misleading.
Historical Trends and Sell the News Risk
Historically, FOMC meetings have frequently served as bearish triggers for Bitcoin. Specifically, in 2025, Bitcoin exhibited negative returns in the 48 hours following seven out of eight FOMC meetings. This pattern suggests that the event itself tends to incite greater volatility than the outcomes of the meetings.
FOMC Meeting Insights
The upcoming FOMC decision is not expected to yield surprises. Current market expectations indicate a 99% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates between 350 to 375 basis points. Additionally, futures markets anticipate only one 25 basis point rate cut before the year ends. This scenario supports a long-term elevated interest rate environment.
Macroeconomic Considerations
Ongoing macroeconomic risks may further complicate matters for Bitcoin. Tensions in the Middle East and oil prices approaching $100 per barrel are likely to exacerbate consumer price index (CPI) inflation. These factors could restrict the Fed’s ability to adopt a more lenient monetary policy, particularly amid a weakening job market.
The Risk of a Classic Sell the News Reaction
As Bitcoin enters the FOMC meeting on a high note, the risk increases for a typical “sell the news” scenario. Investors should remain cautious as they navigate this volatile environment.
