Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries have surged recently, resulting in significant fuel shortages across the country. The increased frequency of these strikes has driven prices higher, affecting ordinary Russians’ access to gasoline.
Surge in Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries
Since the beginning of 2023, Ukraine has targeted a substantial number of Russia’s oil refineries. Reports indicate that 21 out of 38 large refineries have experienced attacks this year, marking a dramatic increase, with incidents rising by 48% compared to the total number for 2024.
Impact on Fuel Supply
- Long queues have been reported at various petrol stations.
- Several gas stations are suspending operations to mitigate losses.
- Gasoline rationing has started in occupied Crimea.
Ukraine’s strategy aims to inflict maximum damage on Russia’s oil infrastructure, compelling negotiations concerning the ongoing conflict. On multiple occasions, President Volodymyr Zelensky has linked the industry’s destruction directly to disrupting Russia’s war efforts.
Record Levels of Drone Strikes
Ukrainian attacks peaked in August, when 14 refineries were hit. This high level continued into September with eight additional strikes recorded. These operations often target critical facilities, including the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery, situated more than 1,100 km from Ukraine’s border, which faced two strikes in late September.
Specific Refineries Under Attack
- Ryazan plant: Hit five times, with a capacity of 340,000 barrels per day.
- Refinery near Volgograd: Targeted six times, leading to a month-long operational halt in August.
- Facilities in Samara and Saratov: Utilized for military logistics, recently struck to impair troop supplies.
Effect on Oil Production and Prices
While exact statistics are challenging to determine due to Russia’s classification of sensitive data, it’s evident that at least 10 refineries have partially or fully suspended operations since August. Reports suggest a potential drop in national fuel production by up to 20% due to these strikes.
The domestic impact has been palpable, with retail petrol prices spiking, while wholesale prices have surged by 40% since January. This situation escalates during periods of seasonal demand, traditionally exacerbated by summer travel.
Government Response
Russian officials have publicly downplayed the severity of the crisis, with Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov assuring that measures are in place to control the situation. However, a partial ban on petrol exports has been extended to the end of 2025, reflecting the government’s preoccupation with domestic fuel availability.
Strategic Implications
The broader implications of these attacks on Russia’s military capabilities remain uncertain. Most Russian oil exports are crude and have not yet been significantly affected. Nevertheless, analysts suggest that these continued strikes will hinder Moscow’s operational effectiveness and contribute to the escalating challenges in sustaining the conflict.
Overall, while the strikes alone may not undermine Russia’s war efforts entirely, they symbolize a critical front in what has become a prolonged conflict, intensifying pressure on the Russian economy.
