European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen recently praised his visit to Azerbaijan, calling it “fruitful.” This statement emerged in the context of the European Union (EU) dealing with a suspension of liquid natural gas (LNG) production from Qatar, a significant energy supplier. The halt comes amidst ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts, impacting global energy prices and supply chains.
The Importance of Azerbaijani Gas
Jørgensen underscored the EU’s need for diversification, energy security, and a clean transition. EU imports from Qatar made up 8% in 2025, according to market data from Kpler Insight. Given the current geopolitical instability, the partnership with Azerbaijan is set to become increasingly crucial for European energy security.
Impact of Middle Eastern Conflicts
Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have escalated tensions, triggering responses from Iran that involved attacks on U.S. military installations in the region. These developments have caused a spike in oil and natural gas prices and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passageway for global energy supplies.
- Strait of Hormuz: Key shipping corridor largely under Iranian control.
- QatarEnergy Suspension: Following Iranian attacks, QatarEnergy has halted LNG production entirely.
In light of these events, the EU must reassess its energy supply strategies. Jørgensen highlighted that Azerbaijan could significantly benefit Europe as it seeks alternatives to Russian gas.
Current LNG Supply Dynamics
A spokesperson from the European Commission downplayed fears of a supply crisis, citing the United States and Norway as reliable energy partners. As of late February, U.S. LNG constituted 56% of the EU’s imports, while Norway contributed 4%. The spokesperson assured that the supply chain remains diversified.
Storage Levels and Supply Risks
Currently, EU gas storage stands at 30%. This figure is down from 38% at the same time last year. Charles Costerousse, a senior analyst from Kpler Insight, noted that disruptions could lower this percentage further, depending on the ongoing situation.
| Country | Dependency on Qatari LNG (2025) |
|---|---|
| Italy | 30% |
| Poland | 17% |
| Belgium | 8% |
Asian nations like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India are noted to have a higher dependency on Qatari LNG than most European countries. Any disruptions are likely to affect these markets more acutely.
Azerbaijan’s Role in the EU Energy Landscape
Azerbaijan, with its connection to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor, has been positioned as a key alternative to Russian energy. Notably, Azerbaijan is projected to supply 4% of EU imports in 2025, increasing its natural gas exports by 53.8% from 2021 levels.
Although there may be concerns regarding human rights and regional stability surrounding Azerbaijan, the EU appears to prioritize securing additional energy supplies in light of ongoing disruptions.
A Call for Energy Transition
Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz from the Institute for Energy Economics emphasized that Europe must now consider alternatives to gas dependence. The current crisis underlines the urgency for transitioning to renewable energy sources and enhancing energy efficiency.
Jan Rosenow from the University of Oxford commented on the timing of this renewed energy crisis, noting it could spur discussions around existing energy policies and the EU’s commitment to carbon market strategies.
As the situation unfolds, the European Commission plans further technical discussions on energy supply, evaluating implications for both market stability and long-term strategies.
