As President Donald Trump prepares to deliver his 2026 State of the Union address, a new poll reveals that two-thirds of Americans believe the system of checks and balances integral to American democracy is failing. This stark realization marks a significant shift in public sentiment, with a 12 percentage-point increase from last year and a doubling of disbelief since December 2024, just before Trump resumed his presidency. Such data highlights a growing crisis of confidence across the political spectrum, leaving crucial questions about the future of governance in America.
Declining Faith in Governance: A Bipartisan Issue
Data from the latest El-Balad poll shows that dissatisfaction is not confined to one party. Democratic respondents express a staggering 45-point swing against faith in checks and balances, while independents follow closely with a 34-point drop. Even within the Republican ranks, who currently govern the White House and Congress, a significant 19-point dip in confidence suggests a widespread disenchantment with the current political climate. Constitutional law expert Kimberly Wehle articulates this concern, emphasizing that the erosion of democratic pillars is deeply troubling. “There isn’t really a system of checks and balances reining in power in the White House,” she asserts, signaling the critical state of democracy.
| Stakeholder Group | Before December 2024 | After December 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | High faith in checks and balances | Low faith (-45 points) |
| Independents | Moderate faith | Low faith (-34 points) |
| Republicans | Strong support for the administration | Decreased support (-19 points) |
| General Public Confidence | 62% | 33% |
The Turbulent Path of Executive Power
Trump’s strategy has consistently sought to bypass traditional legislative paths in favor of aggressive executive actions. With a staggering 243 executive orders signed to date—surpassing any prior president’s count in a single term since Jimmy Carter—this presidency has redefined the boundaries of executive authority. Controversies arising from these orders, including strikes on foreign entities and ramped-up immigration enforcement, illustrate a tactical shift towards testing the limits of power.
As the Supreme Court recently invalidated Trump’s sweeping tariffs, a cornerstone of his economic policy, the executive’s influence faces a significant judicial rift. Trump’s response—rife with contempt for the judicial authority—creates a paradox where he must navigate an increasingly skeptical judiciary while managing his legislative agenda and the concerns of an anxious public. His claim that he would pursue new legal justifications for tariffs speaks volumes about the administration’s willingness to circumvent checks traditionally imposed by Congress.
Ripple Effects Across Borders
Domestically, this crisis of confidence has implications for international relations. Allies and adversaries alike watch how the U.S. manages its internal power dynamics. The unraveling of democratic norms in America may have ripple effects globally, particularly in democracies like Canada and Australia, both of which share vulnerabilities to populist leaders challenging traditional power structures. Political bodies in the UK are likewise observing how the American narrative could influence their ongoing debates about sovereignty and governance.
Projected Outcomes: Key Developments to Watch
Looking ahead, three key developments will shape the political landscape:
- Midterm Elections Impact: The erosion of confidence may lead to heavy losses for the Republican Party during the midterms, putting more pressure on Trump to adjust his narrative.
- Increased Judicial Challenges: The Supreme Court’s recent ruling signals a possible trend of judicial pushback against executive overreach, setting up legal battles that could redefine executive power.
- Continued Polarization and Division: The increasing disillusionment among the electorate can aggravate existing divisions, complicating bipartisan efforts and stalling policy progress in critical areas.
The forthcoming State of the Union address presents Trump with a pivotal chance to redefine his administration’s story. However, public skepticism poses a formidable barrier. Observers from all sides of the political spectrum are questioning not only the impacts of Trump’s presidency but also the very robustness of the democratic framework that supports it. American democracy stands at a crossroads, and its future hinges on how leaders respond to these increasing discontents.
