The war in Ukraine is nearing its fifth anniversary, and the assumed narrative—that public enthusiasm wanes over prolonged conflict—faces a critical test in Russia. Recent polling indicates that slightly more than half of Russians believe the war will conclude by 2026, while a significant majority advocate for an escalation amid stalled negotiations. This duality in public sentiment creates a complex landscape for President Vladimir Putin, who may exploit this ambiguity to further assert his military ambitions in Ukraine. However, beneath the surface of seemingly steadfast support lies a fragile social contract that could unravel under the increasing strain of economic difficulties and pervasive political repression.
Understanding Putin’s Social Contract: Stability vs. Ideology
The foundation of Putin’s rule appears rooted in a social compact: citizens’ loyalty in exchange for economic stability and limited interference in their lives. However, following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Russian economy has stagnated, exacerbated by strict sanctions and a dramatic increase in military expenditure. This tension raises vital questions about the effectiveness of the social contract. While Putin enjoys approval ratings of over 80%, the nature of this support must be understood through the lens of authoritarianism and ideology.
- Putin’s Propaganda: His “Make Russia Great Again” campaign cultivates a compelling narrative of national pride that resonates with many.
- Public Sentiment: The risk of interpreting polling results in a repressive regime raises skepticism about the sincerity of this support.
Stakeholder Impacts: Before vs. After the War
| Stakeholder | Before the War (2021) | After Four Years of War (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Citizens | Stable economy, rising living standards | Increased economic stagnation, rising living costs |
| Putin’s Administration | High public support, limited dissent | Emerging fractures in support, increased dissent risks |
| International Community | Sanctions limited to political elites | Wider economy affected, increasing isolation and resistance |
Public Opinion: The Enigma of Support for War
Experts increasingly identify a dichotomy within Russian public opinion: a small segment vocally opposes the war, a slightly larger group expresses enthusiasm for it, while the majority appear to passively acquiesce to state narratives. Independent polling organizations like the Levada Center face challenges in capturing an accurate picture, given the pervasive fear of punitive measures against dissent. Despite reported support for the “special military operation” fluctuating between 60% and 70%, the mechanisms behind these numbers merit scrutiny.
- Social Desirability Bias: Respondents may express support for the war to avoid repercussions.
- Internal Emigration: Many Russian citizens disengage from political discourse, preferring to lead their lives quietly.
The Reality versus the Propaganda
Contrary to government propaganda, the cultural zeitgeist in Russia reflects ambivalence toward the war. Popular music and literature often gravitate towards personal narratives rather than nationalistic fervor, with citizens expressing interest in works like George Orwell’s “1984.” This divergence indicates a disconnect between state-imposed narratives and the lived experiences of ordinary Russians.
Projected Outcomes: Future Scenarios for the Russian Public
With the war’s continuation pressing heavily upon the populace, several developments are poised to shape the future landscape:
- Increased Discontent: As economic hardships deepen, public sentiment could shift from passive support to active dissent.
- Political Engagement: A potential rise in grassroots movements opposing the war may manifest as the costs become too burdensome for ordinary citizens.
- Shifts in Propaganda: The Kremlin’s attempts to adjust its messaging in response to public sentiment may become more visible, indicating recognition of underlying tensions.
The fifth year of the Ukraine conflict will be a critical juncture for Russia. While Putin appears to ride a wave of public backing, the delicate balance between stability and ideology may soon tip, revealing cracks in the so-called “Putin consensus” that could challenge the existing order.
