The United States government has disclosed new intelligence regarding a suspected nuclear test by China, potentially conducted in 2020. This information stems from a seismic event detected on June 22, 2020, at a remote monitoring station in Kazakhstan. This event, although minor, registered a magnitude of 2.75 and originated approximately 450 miles away from Lop Nur, China’s primary nuclear test site.
Details of the Suspected Nuclear Test
Christopher Yeaw, Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, labeled the seismic activity as indicative of an explosion consistent with a nuclear test. He presented this hypothesis during an event hosted by the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C. Yeaw stated, “There is very little possibility that it is anything other than an explosion, a singular explosion.”
However, this assertion has sparked skepticism among independent experts. Ben Dando, head of seismology and verification at NORSAR, emphasized that the weak signal recorded at just one station limits confidence in concluding a nuclear test occurred. He remarked that the data did not provide strong conclusive evidence.
Response from Monitoring Organizations
- The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization confirmed it had recorded two small seismic events 12 seconds apart.
- Due to inadequate data, determining the precise cause of these events remains ambiguous.
The Chinese government has vehemently denied these allegations, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian asserting, “The U.S. accusation of Chinese nuclear explosive tests is completely groundless.”
The Context of Global Nuclear Testing
In recent decades, major nuclear powers, including the U.S. and China, have refrained from conducting nuclear weapons tests. The last U.S. test was in 1992, while China’s most recent official test occurred in 1996. Both countries signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, yet neither has fully ratified it. Despite this, developments in nuclear weapons programs continue through advanced simulations and other experiments.
Expansion of China’s Nuclear Arsenal
China is undergoing a significant expansion of its nuclear capabilities. Current estimates suggest China possesses approximately 600 warheads, up from around 200 in 2019, with ambitions to reach 1,000 by 2030. This increase raises the stakes in the dynamics between nuclear powers.
According to experts, China’s limited nuclear test data may be driving their interest in larger nuclear tests. Prior to the testing moratorium, China only conducted 45 nuclear tests, which may incentivize experimentation with new designs, including hypersonic weapons.
Future Implications for Global Arms Control
The disclosure regarding China’s suspected nuclear testing aligns with concerns over the nation’s commitment to nuclear non-proliferation. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Arms Control Thomas DiNanno suggested that China might be close to conducting tests that yield larger explosions. Yeaw proposed that the 2020 event might align with a “yield-producing” nuclear test, although details about the potential size were not disclosed.
As the geopolitical landscape evolves, Yeaw expressed hope for future arms control negotiations involving both China and Russia. However, amidst these discussions, the Pentagon is contemplating augmenting its own nuclear capabilities.
As tensions rise and allegations of testing loom, the global community will be watching closely to understand China’s next steps in its nuclear agenda.
