Georgia is in a precarious position as it navigates its foreign policy amidst shifting alliances. Once regarded as the closest ally of Washington in the South Caucasus, Georgia finds itself sidelined in US diplomacy.
Vance’s Visit and Its Implications
On February 9, Vice President JD Vance visited the region, marking the highest-level US official visit since Joe Biden’s trip in 2009. His itinerary notably excluded Georgia, in stark contrast to Azerbaijan and Armenia, which welcomed invitations to pivotal peace initiatives.
Shifting Focus of US Diplomacy
- Georgia was notably absent from President Trump’s recent peace council aimed at resolving issues in the region.
- Analysts highlight Georgia’s diminishing role as Azerbaijan and Armenia leverage growing ties with the US.
- Former Georgian foreign policy analyst Giorgi Tumasyan expressed concerns over Georgia’s lack of engagement in key regional discussions.
Historically, Georgia played a vital role as a transit route for Caspian energy exports. However, with the escalating relationship between Azerbaijan and Armenia through US-backed initiatives, Georgia’s significance is being challenged.
The Road Ahead for Georgia
Georgia’s political landscape shifted dramatically after the Georgian Dream party came to power in 2012. This change raised concerns about democratic backsliding, largely due to its connections with Russia.
Recent Electoral Controversies
- Despite winning the 2024 elections, the process faced serious allegations, including vote-buying and intimidation.
- The US imposed sanctions following violent responses to protests that erupted after the election.
Relations with Washington further deteriorated under the Trump administration. Former US Ambassador Robin Dunnigan described a private letter from Georgian officials as “threatening” and poorly received. Her attempts to reset relations highlighted misunderstandings that exacerbated tensions.
Georgian Interests and Regional Dynamics
As Tbilisi moves closer to China while maintaining its relationship with Russia, it risks alienating its traditional Western allies. This pivot has drawn criticism from analysts who worry that such relationships may limit Georgia’s diplomatic leverage.
Challenges of Aligning with China
- Georgia’s decision to elevate its partnership with China has drawn scrutiny in Washington.
- Experts argue that the strategic benefits of these ties are minimal, given the lack of deep historical connections.
Amid these changes, Georgian leaders have struggled to gain attention on the international stage. Their absence from high-level forums contrasts sharply with increased visibility for leaders from Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Conclusion
As Georgia reassesses its foreign policy direction, its historical role as a Western ally is increasingly in question. With neighboring countries strengthening their ties with the US, the future for Georgia in the region appears uncertain.
