The Syrian army has intensified its offensive against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), gaining near-total control of Raqqa, a city once held by the Islamic State. This advance comes amid a ceasefire agreement announced by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, indicating a significant shift in the region’s power dynamics.
Key Developments in Raqqa and Ceasefire Agreement
On Sunday, Syrian government troops captured Raqqa, which was primarily controlled by the SDF since it was liberated from ISIS nearly nine years ago. President Sharaa’s announcement of the ceasefire day later marked a pivotal moment for the Kurdish-led militia.
State media reported Sharaa holding the agreement’s text, widely perceived as favoring Damascus. SDF commander Mazlum Kobane was initially expected to sign the document in person, but ultimately signed remotely.
Contentions and Implications of the Agreement
The ceasefire agreement introduces a ceasefire across all frontlines, mandating the immediate military and administrative handover of crucial areas like the Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor governorates to the Syrian government. Key provisions include:
- Full integration of SDF military personnel into Syrian defense structures.
- Transfer of control over oil and gas fields to the Syrian government.
- Administration of ISIS prisons and facilities will shift to Damascus.
This concession marks a significant retreat for the SDF, which previously sought to maintain autonomous military divisions. It also suggests a potential end to the Kurdish aspirations for political autonomy.
U.S. Involvement and Wider Implications
The agreement reflects the changing dynamics of international influence, particularly from the U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack commended both sides for their cooperation. However, analysts perceive this pact as indicative of reducing U.S. support for the SDF, undermining their position in Syria.
Arab tribes in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor have largely defected from the SDF, further complicating their standing. Observers note that the speed of the Syrian military’s advance, completing in just 48 hours, pressured Kobane’s decision to accept terms likely dictated by U.S. interests.
Future Prospects for the SDF and Regional Stability
If fully implemented, the agreement could dismantle the SDF’s operational framework, curtailing their income by affecting oil field control. The historical context reveals a strong desire among Arab-majority populations to revert to Syrian governance, potentially emboldening further centralization under Sharaa.
Turkey’s interests also align with the agreement, advocating for the dismantling of the SDF amid ongoing tension regarding the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The situation remains fluid, with each development potentially redrawing the regional landscape.
The recent activities signal a critical juncture for the SDF and the broader Syrian conflict, revealing the complexities of local governance and military authority, which will impact dialogues concerning Syria’s future.
