A recent poll indicates that Texas State Representative James Talarico is ahead of U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett by nine percentage points among likely Democratic voters. This marks a notable shift from a previous survey conducted in December, where Crockett was leading by a similar margin.
Talarico’s Lead in Democratic Primary
The survey, conducted by Emerson College, sampled 413 statewide voters earlier this week. The results showed Talarico, a Democrat from Austin, with 47% support, compared to Crockett from Dallas, who garnered 38%. An additional 15% of voters reported being undecided ahead of the March 3 primary.
Shifts in Voter Sentiment
Just a month prior, a Texas Southern University (TSU) poll indicated Crockett leading by eight points. This earlier poll was conducted shortly after Crockett’s late entry into the Democratic primary.
- Talarico’s Support: Strong among Latino and white voters.
- Crockett’s Support: Dominates among Black voters.
Talarico enjoys a remarkable 34-point lead among Latino voters and a 29-point lead among white voters in the Emerson poll. However, Crockett has the backing of 80% of Black voters surveyed. The significant 17-point swing toward Talarico reflects his increased appeal, particularly among men, Latino, and white voters.
Republican Candidates’ Race
The Republican primary features Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Senator John Cornyn in a tight competition. Neither candidate has reached 30% support, raising the possibility of a runoff election in May, should no candidate achieve a 50% majority during the March election.
| Candidate | Support (%) |
|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | 27 |
| John Cornyn | 26 |
| Wesley Hunt | 16 |
The poll included responses from 550 voters, with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. The competition remains tight and reflects little change from the August polling, where Cornyn led Paxton with 30% to 29% support.
Assessment of Democratic Candidates
There is ongoing debate among Texas Democrats on which candidate, Talarico or Crockett, stands a better chance at breaking the party’s long-standing losing streak in statewide elections. The Emerson survey reveals Talarico also performing slightly better against Republican challengers.
Head-to-Head Matchups
In head-to-head matchups, both Cornyn and Hunt maintain a slight edge over Crockett by five points and over Talarico by three points. The potential candidacy of Paxton raises concerns among Republicans regarding the safety of the Senate seat.
Other Poll Findings
In other electoral races, Texas Governor Greg Abbott is leading Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa 50% to 42%. Additionally, key voter issues are shifting—28% still cite the economy as their primary concern, but immigration has declined to 14%, replaced by concerns over democracy at 17%.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Texas has also changed. From a 49% approval in August, it has now dropped to 48%, with 46% disapproving of his performance.
