A recent poll from Emerson College and Nexstar Media highlights key dynamics in the Texas 2026 Democratic Senate race, showing Rep. James Talarico leading the primary field. He garners support from 47% of likely Democratic voters, with Rep. Jasmine Crockett closely following at 38%. Meanwhile, 15% of respondents remain undecided.
Talarico’s Diverse Support Base
Talarico’s appeal spans several demographic groups. Approximately 59% of Hispanic voters favor him, along with 57% of white voters. In contrast, Crockett holds strong support among Black voters, with 80% backing her campaign. Both candidates exhibit unique strengths among men and women; Talarico leads men with 52%, whereas female voters are nearly evenly divided, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett.
Republican Primary: Cornyn vs. Paxton
The contest among Republicans is tight. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn has 26% support, just trailing Attorney General Ken Paxton at 27%. Rep. Wesley Hunt shows a notable presence with 16%, while 29% of Republican voters remain undecided. Such division suggests a likely runoff in the upcoming May primary.
General Election Scenarios
Looking ahead to the general election, various matchups between Democratic and Republican candidates indicate competitive races. Key findings include:
- Talarico vs. Cornyn: Cornyn at 47%, Talarico at 44%, 9% undecided.
- Talarico vs. Paxton: Both candidates receive 46% support, with 9% undecided.
- Talarico vs. Hunt: Hunt at 47%, Talarico at 44%, 9% undecided.
- Crockett vs. Cornyn: Cornyn leads with 48%, Crockett at 43%, 9% undecided.
- Crockett vs. Paxton: Each candidate has 46%, with 9% undecided.
- Crockett vs. Hunt: Hunt leads at 48%, Crockett at 43%, 9% undecided.
Additional Insights from the Poll
In the gubernatorial election, incumbent Greg Abbott maintains an eight-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with 50% to 42% support. Only 8% of voters are undecided. Abbott’s approval rating stands at 47%, with a disapproval rating also at 47%. In comparison, former President Donald Trump has a 48% job approval rating in Texas.
Voter Priorities
The economy tops the list of issues for Texas voters at 28%, a slight decrease from previous polls. Other concerns include:
- Threats to democracy: 17%
- Immigration: 14%
- Healthcare: 9%
- Housing affordability: 8%
Poll Details
The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey was conducted from January 10 to January 12, 2026. It surveyed 1,165 active registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Specific sample sizes for the Democratic and Republican primaries were 413 and 550, respectively. The poll’s credibility intervals reflect weighted demographic parameters and align with a 95% confidence level.
For a comprehensive breakdown of this survey and full results, visit El-Balad.
