La Niña conditions are set to diminish mid-winter, with NOAA forecasting a shift toward ENSO-neutral. This transition may pave the way for the emergence of El Niño this summer.
Transition to ENSO-Neutral
The current La Niña phase is characterized by below-average ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. As La Niña weakens, the temperatures in this region are expected to rise, moving towards ENSO-neutral conditions.
Implications of El Niño Development
NOAA projects that ENSO-neutral conditions will likely persist at least until late spring. Following this period, the potential for El Niño conditions could arise in the summer or fall.
- El Niño Effects: Generally associated with a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity due to increased wind shear.
- Weather Patterns: El Niño and La Niña both significantly influence global weather patterns.
Weather Impact from La Niña and El Niño
The ongoing changes in the equatorial Pacific have far-reaching effects on weather conditions in the United States and worldwide. While La Niña typically leads to a warmer winter in the Southern U.S. and colder conditions in the Northern Plains, the transition to ENSO-neutral will reduce its strong influence.
- Predicted Weather Effects:
- Wetter-than-normal winter for the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
- Drier winter conditions expected across the Southern U.S.
According to NOAA, while La Niña may still hold some influence into early spring, the weather effects associated with it and the potential development of El Niño will be closely monitored.
