The possibility of a white Christmas across the United States this year is being closely monitored. Meteorologist Scott Kleebauer from the Weather Prediction Center indicates that the best chances exist in the northern regions. This includes places in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, and parts of the northern Great Lakes.
Key Regions for a White Christmas
Kleebauer noted that areas such as the Adirondacks, northern New England, and northern Maine are likely candidates for snowfall on December 25. To classify as a white Christmas, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) specifies that there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground during that morning.
Forecast Overview
Despite the optimism in northern regions, other areas face a decline in snow chances. For instance, regions westward from Minnesota may experience limited possibilities for a white Christmas. This includes parts of South Dakota, Iowa, and southern states, where conditions are less favorable.
According to Kleebauer, a significant ridge of high pressure will establish itself over the southern central Plains. This ridge is expected to influence weather patterns for several days, leading to temperatures that are higher than average.
Temperature & Snow Coverage
Temperatures are projected to remain elevated, traversing areas such as Minnesota and the Dakotas, despite some regions already having a healthy snowpack. Kleebauer remarked that even with warm temperatures, it remains challenging to melt all existing snow in these northern latitudes.
As of now, approximately 22% of the continental U.S. is covered by snow, emphasizing that widespread snowfall remains limited.
Historical Odds of a White Christmas
Historically, the northern tier of states near Canada has the highest likelihood of experiencing a white Christmas. Regions like northern Maine and parts of the northern Great Lakes also show considerable chances.
The NOAA data, which spans from 1991 to 2020, provides a clear map highlighting the odds of having at least one inch of snow on Christmas Day across various weather stations in the U.S. Areas shaded in dark gray indicate a probability of less than 10%, while white areas indicate over 90% likelihood.
| City | Chance of White Christmas |
|---|---|
| Minneapolis-St. Paul | 74% |
| Cleveland | 39% |
| Chicago | 34% |
| Detroit | 35% |
| Indianapolis | 26% |
| New York City | 13% |
In southern states, the likelihood of a white Christmas is significantly reduced. As noted by Kleebauer, conditions drastically diminish particularly south of Interstate 80, except for elevated spots in the Appalachian Mountains, where snow chances can remain higher.
