A recent Emerson College Polling survey has revealed a dynamic shift in California’s 2026 gubernatorial race. With the election fast approaching, new candidates have entered the fray, while established ones are experiencing fluctuating support among voters.
Swalwell Energizes California 2026 Governor Race
According to the poll, conducted from December 1-2, 2025, four candidates currently lead the pack in the upcoming primary. Republican Chad Bianco stands at 13%, while fellow Republican Steve Hilton has 12%. On the Democratic side, Eric Swalwell has garnered 12% of voter support, closely followed by Katie Porter with 11%. Notably, 31% of respondents remain undecided.
Polling Insights
The survey indicates that since October, support for Bianco has increased by two percentage points. In contrast, Hilton has seen a decrease of four points. Both Porter and Swalwell’s entry has divided the Democratic vote, with Swalwell earning 20% and Porter 17% among Democrats. Republicans are more united, with Bianco at 33% and Hilton at 30%. Furthermore, a significant 45% of independent voters are still undecided about whom to support.
Governor Newsom’s Approval Rating
Current Governor Gavin Newsom enjoys a net job approval of +8%, which marks his highest rating for the year. His approval level stands at 47%, while 39% of voters disapprove of his performance. Voters under 40 are most supportive, approving of Newsom by a 21-point margin.
Impact of Newsom’s Endorsement
Voter opinions on Newsom’s endorsement of candidates are mixed. Approximately one-third believe it would positively influence their vote. Conversely, another third claim it would negatively affect their choices, while 35% see no difference.
Candidates’ Favorability Ratings
- Katie Porter: 30% favorable, 34% unfavorable, 37% unsure
- Eric Swalwell: 24% favorable, 23% unfavorable, 53% unsure
Key Issues for Voters
When asked about pressing issues, 34% of voters prioritize the economy, with housing affordability next at 25%. Other concerns include immigration (10%), threats to democracy (10%), and healthcare (9%). Currently, only 7% rate California’s economy as “excellent,” while 36% label it as “poor.”
Accountability for the Economy
Over half of the surveyed voters (51%) attribute California’s economic state to Governor Newsom. Comparatively, 27% blame former President Trump, and only 5% assign responsibility to former President Biden.
Era of Immigration Policy in California
On immigration issues, 60% of Californians view mass deportations negatively, while 40% support such actions.
Looking Ahead to 2028
As the 2028 presidential nominations approach, Newsom leads the Democratic primary candidates with 36% support, a notable rise from August. He is followed by Pete Buttigieg (16%), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (13%), and Kamala Harris (9%).
In the Republican primary, JD Vance leads with 52% support, followed by Marco Rubio (11%), Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (10%), and Ron DeSantis (6%).
Polling Methodology
This statewide survey included a sample of 1,000 active registered voters, with a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. Subgroups, such as likely Democratic and Republican primary voters, had larger margins of error due to smaller sample sizes.
The data was compiled using mixed methods, including cellphone outreach and online panels, ensuring a comprehensive representation of California voters.
