Solana’s price is experiencing a slight increase of approximately 4.2% today. However, the overall trend remains negative, with the digital currency dropping nearly 22% over the past month. Recent on-chain analytics reveal that long-term holders are pulling back on their investments, casting doubt on the anticipated price recovery.
Long-Term Holders Reducing Exposure
The group of Solana holders who have maintained their investments for 1 to 2 years has been reducing their holdings consistently throughout the month. Data from HODL Waves indicates that this specific cohort accounted for 19.28% of the total supply on October 20, which decreased to 17.24% by November 19. This decline is significant for a group that typically stabilizes during market corrections.
This selling trend suggests that long-term holders do not see the recent price increase as a sign of a genuine market shift. Their behavior indicates a lack of confidence in the sustainability of this rebound.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Ahead
Solana’s temporary price recovery faces two main challenges. Firstly, the technical signal from moving averages is concerning. The 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is on track to cross below the 200-day EMA, a pattern often associated with weakening trends. Previous bearish crossovers have preceded significant drops in Solana’s price.
Secondly, the presence of substantial sell orders is evident near the current price levels. The Cost-Basis Heatmap shows that there are two key resistance clusters between $140 and $142. The first zone, from $140.39 to $141.31, contains approximately 16.3 million SOL. The second zone, between $141.31 and $142.24, holds about 16.9 million SOL. These clusters could deter any upward movement as holders may sell when the price reaches these levels.
Key Levels to Watch for Solana Price
For the price bounce to be considered legitimate, Solana must achieve a daily close above $143. Such a close would indicate momentum, allowing the price to potentially approach $146 and revisit the $167 level—a threshold that has proven challenging to surpass since early November.
- A daily close above $143 will signal potential upward movement.
- A sustained price above this level may target $146 and then $167.
- If the price falls below $143, a downward slide is likely to follow.
- A drop below $128 would confirm further weakness in Solana’s market.
At present, despite an attempt to recover, several bearish indicators remain in play. Long-term holders continue to show reluctance in increasing their exposure, highlighting uncertainties surrounding the Solana price reversal theory. A definitive close above $143 is necessary to validate any claims of a market turnaround; without this, pessimism may prevail, leading to continued caution among investors.
