As the 2026 midterm elections approach, recent polling suggests a significant advantage for the Democratic Party. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted from November 10-13, 2025, surveyed 1,443 adults and revealed several critical insights into voter sentiment and party dynamics.
Democrats Exhibit a 14-Point Lead
The poll indicates that if the midterm elections were held today, Democrats would have a commanding 14-point advantage over Republicans. This marks the largest gap recorded since 2017. Notably, the survey also highlighted President Trump’s approval rating at just 39%, a stark decline since the January 6 Capitol attack.
Public Sentiment on Key Issues
- Approximately 60% of respondents blame congressional Republicans and Trump for the government shutdown.
- Nearly 57% believe that lowering prices should be Trump’s main focus, significantly overshadowing other issues like immigration.
Poll participants expressed widespread dissatisfaction with political institutions. Many feel abandoned by both major parties. One respondent, Wayne Dowdy from Memphis, noted that he feels disconnected from the Democratic Party but will continue to support Democratic candidates due to the alternatives.
Democratic Momentum in Congress
This poll reflects a shift in voter preferences, as Democrats currently lead 55% to 41% in the congressional ballot—a key indicator of midterm outcomes. This lead is reminiscent of the political climate in late 2017, during Trump’s first term, when Democrats gained control of the House by winning 40 seats.
Independent Voter Trends
Independents are also showing a preference for Democrats, choosing them by a remarkable 33-point margin. Historical context suggests that a strong lead in congressional ballots often correlates with successful midterm outings. In contrast, the fall of 2022 had Democrats with a minimal lead that resulted in losses.
Challenges Faced by the GOP
Trump’s unpopularity has emerged as a significant factor influencing Republican prospects. His approval ratings linger at 39%, coupled with a dismal 24% approval among independents. Approximately 48% of surveyed individuals strongly disapprove of his performance, the lowest in his administration so far.
Confidence in Political Institutions
- 80% of respondents expressed little to no confidence in Congress.
- 75% lack confidence in the media.
- 71% hold negative views about the Democratic Party.
- 65% express distrust towards the Republican Party.
- 62% have low confidence in the Supreme Court.
These findings underscore growing dissatisfaction with American political leadership. Both parties face scrutiny regarding their connection to everyday voters, with many individuals feeling alienated from elected officials.
Polarization Between Parties
Political polarization remains pronounced, with over 80% of Democrats and Republicans labeling members of the opposing party as “closed-minded.” Furthermore, 70% of Republicans and around two-thirds of Democrats consider the other side “dishonest,” illustrating a deep-seated mistrust that complicates bipartisan efforts.
Conclusion: Democratic Advantage Ahead of Midterms
Despite significant challenges, the Democratic Party’s current advantages in polling and voter sentiment could position them strongly in the upcoming 2026 midterms. As political dynamics evolve, the importance of addressing voter concerns, particularly economic pressures, remains crucial for both parties.
