Amid escalating unrest in Iran, over 18,000 individuals have been arrested during protests against the regime in just two and a half weeks. Demonstrators are demanding the removal of the current leadership. This wave of dissent marks a significant response to widespread dissatisfaction among the Iranian populace.
Protests and Opposition Initiatives
Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran’s last Shah, has positioned himself as a leading figure for the opposition. Based in the United States, he has called upon Iranians to participate actively in the protests. However, experts describe him as a divisive character without a clear plan for leadership, should he return to power.
The Political Landscape in Iran
- Iran operates under a dual political system.
- The system includes both electoral and non-electoral components.
- The Supreme Leader and associated institutions hold significant control over all major decisions.
Maryam Alemzadeh, an associate professor at the University of Oxford, emphasizes that while the Iranian electoral system resembles Western democracies, it is heavily influenced by the Supreme Leader’s office. This oversight limits the pool of candidates eligible for meaningful positions within the government.
Challenges for Domestic Opposition
The Iranian government has historically suppressed organized opposition, stifling any emerging leaders and groups. This suppression extends to non-political NGOs, unions, and student organizations, effectively quashing grassroots movements. According to Alemzadeh, this results in spontaneous protests driven by individual or collective action rather than structured leadership.
Future Uncertainties
Although Pahlavi has gained some visibility as a potential leader, his actual readiness to govern remains highly questionable. Should the current regime collapse, the challenges he would face are considerable. These include dealing with the extensive security apparatus, widespread corruption, and a small yet significant base of loyal supporters of the Islamic Republic.
The ongoing unrest and subsequent government crackdown highlight the tense and rapidly evolving situation in Iran, with questions surrounding leadership and the future of its political landscape at the forefront of international attention.
