Ethiopia and Eritrea share a turbulent history marked by several significant events. Their relationship has oscillated between conflict and cooperation since Eritrea gained independence in 1993. However, recent tensions have raised concerns about the possibility of renewed hostilities.
Current State of Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations
The current climate of fear along the Ethiopia-Eritrea border has deep roots. Following a collaborative effort against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in 2020, relations began to sour again. The brutal Tigray War claimed between 162,000 and 600,000 lives. The TPLF, despite representing only 6% of the Ethiopian populace, held significant political power for many years, enforcing restrictive policies towards Eritrea.
In 2018, the election of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister marked a shift. Peace was restored, leading to the reopening of border crossings and earning Abiy a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. But this improvement was not sustained.
Factors Fueling Tension
- Demand for Seaport: Ethiopia seeks direct access to a seaport, focusing on Assab, just 75 kilometers from the border. Abiy Ahmed argues that the reliance on Djibouti’s ports is a financial burden, costing approximately $1.5 to $2 billion annually.
- Military Presence: Ethiopian military officials recently met at the border town of Bure, raising alarms about potential conflicts reminiscent of the 1998-2000 war.
- Allegations of Support: Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of backing local militias, which Eritrea categorically denies, describing the accusations as absurd.
Military and Strategic Perspectives
Experts express skepticism about Ethiopia’s military capability to engage in a new front with Eritrea. The Ethiopian army is currently stretched thin due to internal conflicts, particularly in the Amhara region. Observers believe that while verbal hostilities may continue, an outright war seems improbable.
Diplomatic Efforts and International Involvement
Abiy Ahmed has articulated Ethiopia’s unwavering demand for port access in discussions with nations such as the United States, China, and the European Union. He emphasized a preference for peaceful resolution, declaring a desire for mediation.
Security analysts suggest the African Union could play a pivotal role in resolving these issues, although it has historically struggled with conflict mediation in the region. Furthermore, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has sought Egypt’s support amid ongoing tensions, particularly concerning water dynamics associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Implications of Future Elections
As Ethiopia approaches elections set for 2026, analysts voice concerns about the potential ramifications for Ethiopia-Eritrea relations. While some believe a renewed term for Abiy could provide time to address these tensions, others feel the issue of Assab will persist as a contentious topic in Ethiopian politics.
In summary, the complex history shared by Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to influence their relationship. While the need for cooperation is evident, the demands and fear of conflict loom large, reflecting a challenging path ahead for both nations. The persistent question remains: Is Ethiopia intimidating Eritrea?
